{"id":110166,"date":"2026-04-08T04:45:12","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T04:45:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/diariodigitalrd.com\/?p=698552"},"modified":"2026-04-08T04:45:12","modified_gmt":"2026-04-08T04:45:12","slug":"el-petroleo-seguira-caro-pese-al-alivio-del-alto-el-fuego-segun-expertos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sarmiento24h.com\/?p=110166","title":{"rendered":"El petr\u00f3leo seguir\u00e1 caro pese al alivio del alto el fuego, seg\u00fan expertos"},"content":{"rendered":"

El mercado celebra la pausa entre EE.\u202fUU. e Ir\u00e1n, pero el riesgo energ\u00e9tico persiste<\/h2>\n

Los mercados han reaccionado con fuerza a la noticia, pero el mensaje de fondo es menos optimista de lo que sugieren los titulares. El reciente repunte burs\u00e1til y la correcci\u00f3n del petr\u00f3leo responden m\u00e1s a un alivio moment\u00e1neo que a un cambio estructural. As\u00ed lo advierte Nigel Green, director ejecutivo de deVere Group, una de las mayores firmas independientes de asesoramiento financiero a nivel global.<\/p>\n

Nigel Green, director ejecutivo de deVere Group.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

El detonante fue la decisi\u00f3n del presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, de suspender durante dos semanas la acci\u00f3n militar contra Ir\u00e1n. El anuncio redujo de inmediato el temor a una interrupci\u00f3n prolongada del suministro energ\u00e9tico a trav\u00e9s del estrecho de Ormuz, una v\u00eda por la que transita cerca de una quinta parte del petr\u00f3leo mundial. Bast\u00f3 esa se\u00f1al para que el \u00e1nimo del mercado cambiara de forma abrupta.<\/p>\n

Los futuros de Wall Street se dispararon. El Dow Jones registr\u00f3 fuertes avances, mientras que el S&P 500 y el Nasdaq 100 subieron m\u00e1s de un 2%, reflejando un claro regreso del apetito por el riesgo. Al mismo tiempo, el precio del crudo, que hab\u00eda escalado ante los peores escenarios posibles, retrocedi\u00f3 con rapidez al descontarse una menor tensi\u00f3n geopol\u00edtica a corto plazo.<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cLos mercados estaban preparados para este momento\u201d, explica Green. \u201cEl posicionamiento era defensivo, la volatilidad estaba alta y el petr\u00f3leo incorporaba escenarios extremos. Una pausa, aunque sea temporal, libera esa presi\u00f3n casi de inmediato\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

El directivo subraya que la magnitud del rebote dice mucho sobre el nivel de nerviosismo previo. Los inversores se hab\u00edan preparado para una escalada capaz de estrangular flujos energ\u00e9ticos clave. El simple hecho de retirar parte de esa amenaza permiti\u00f3 que el capital regresara con rapidez a los activos de riesgo.<\/p>\n

Algunos sectores aparecen bien posicionados para liderar esta fase de alivio. <\/strong>La tecnolog\u00eda, golpeada en las \u00faltimas semanas por la subida de rendimientos y la aversi\u00f3n al riesgo, podr\u00eda encabezar la recuperaci\u00f3n. Un petr\u00f3leo algo m\u00e1s barato reduce, aunque sea de forma marginal, las expectativas de inflaci\u00f3n y da ox\u00edgeno a las valoraciones. \u201cEsperamos movimientos relevantes en las grandes tecnol\u00f3gicas y en las compa\u00f1\u00edas vinculadas a la inteligencia artificial\u201d, apunta Green.<\/p>\n

Tambi\u00e9n el consumo discrecional se perfila como beneficiado. Una menor presi\u00f3n sobre el precio del combustible suele trasladarse a la gasolina, lo que deja m\u00e1s margen al gasto de los hogares. Aerol\u00edneas, turismo y comercio minorista reaccionan de inmediato ante un combustible m\u00e1s barato y un clima de mercado menos tenso.<\/p>\n

El sector financiero tampoco queda al margen. Una mayor estabilidad suele impulsar la actividad de fusiones, adquisiciones y financiaci\u00f3n. \u201cLos bancos funcionan mejor cuando la incertidumbre retrocede. La reducci\u00f3n de riesgos extremos favorece los mercados de cr\u00e9dito y capitales\u201d, se\u00f1ala el CEO de deVere.<\/p>\n

Sin embargo, el panorama para la energ\u00eda es m\u00e1s complejo. Aunque las acciones del sector pueden sufrir a corto plazo si el crudo corrige, Green insiste en que el trasfondo sigue siendo ajustado. \u201cLas limitaciones de oferta no han desaparecido. Una pausa de dos semanas no repone inventarios ni resuelve la fragmentaci\u00f3n geopol\u00edtica\u201d.<\/p>\n

El petr\u00f3leo contin\u00faa cotizando muy por encima de los niveles del a\u00f1o pasado. La prima de riesgo ya est\u00e1 integrada en los precios y dif\u00edcilmente se evaporar\u00e1. \u201cNo es realista esperar un regreso r\u00e1pido a m\u00ednimos anteriores. Incluso con desescalada, el mercado seguir\u00e1 descontando posibles nuevas disrupciones\u201d, advierte.<\/p>\n

Todo depender\u00e1 ahora de la credibilidad de ese plazo de dos semanas. Los inversores,<\/strong> curtidos en crisis similares, saben que el alivio inicial activa una cuenta regresiva. Si la pausa se transforma en un marco diplom\u00e1tico duradero, el repunte podr\u00eda ampliarse hacia sectores industriales, mercados emergentes y valores c\u00edclicos. Si no, la volatilidad volver\u00e1 con la misma rapidez.<\/p>\n

\u201cEl rally se basa en la eliminaci\u00f3n del miedo inmediato\u201d, concluye Green. \u201cPero los problemas de fondo siguen ah\u00ed. Hay oportunidad, s\u00ed, pero tambi\u00e9n motivos de cautela. La siguiente fase depender\u00e1 de si la diplomacia ofrece algo m\u00e1s que tiempo\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El mercado celebra la pausa entre EE.\u202fUU....<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":110167,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[60],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-110166","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economicas"],"yoast_head":"\nEl petr\u00f3leo seguir\u00e1 caro pese al alivio del alto el fuego, seg\u00fan expertos - Sarmiento24h<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sarmiento24h.com\/?p=110166\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"El petr\u00f3leo seguir\u00e1 caro pese al alivio del alto el fuego, seg\u00fan expertos - 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