{"id":33420,"date":"2026-02-28T14:57:57","date_gmt":"2026-02-28T14:57:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/a94ffbb6-14b1-11f1-ab5c-9be44571d55b"},"modified":"2026-02-28T14:57:57","modified_gmt":"2026-02-28T14:57:57","slug":"afluencia-de-refugiados-crisis-petrolera-que-riesgos-enfrenta-oriente-medio-tras-el-ataque-contra-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sarmiento24h.com\/?p=33420","title":{"rendered":"Afluencia de refugiados, crisis petrolera: \u00bfqu\u00e9 riesgos enfrenta Oriente Medio tras el ataque contra Ir\u00e1n?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

\u00bfHan abierto Israel<\/a> y Estados Unidos<\/a> la caja de Pandora<\/a>? Con el inicio de la operaci\u00f3n \u201cFuria \u00e9pica\u201d contra Ir\u00e1n<\/a>, el s\u00e1bado 28 de febrero, muchos temen ahora graves consecuencias para todo Oriente Medio<\/a>.<\/p>\n

En caso de ataques estadounidenses, \u00abIr\u00e1n responder\u00e1 y la crisis se extender\u00e1 por toda la regi\u00f3n, con el bloqueo del estrecho de Ormuz y acciones de sus aliados, incluso debilitados. El caos en Ir\u00e1n afectar\u00eda a Turqu\u00eda y a la Uni\u00f3n Europea<\/a> con una posible afluencia masiva de refugiados\u201d, resumi\u00f3 para la AFP una fuente diplom\u00e1tica de un pa\u00eds fronterizo con Ir\u00e1n antes del inicio de la ofensiva israelo-estadounidense.<\/p>\n

\u00abPodr\u00edan provocar el efecto contrario\u00bb<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Si el poder en el pa\u00eds es eliminado mediante una acci\u00f3n armada, sin una transici\u00f3n hacia otra forma pol\u00edtica estable, Ir\u00e1n podr\u00eda convertirse, en el peor de los casos, en una zona de caos, fragmentada entre minor\u00edas y refugio de grupos violentos.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00abSi debe haber un cambio de r\u00e9gimen<\/a>, debe venir desde el interior del pa\u00eds\u00bb, advierte un alto responsable de un servicio de inteligencia europeo.<\/p>\n

\n

\u00abSi estadounidenses o israel\u00edes intentan forzarlo, podr\u00edan provocar el efecto contrario\u00bb, como ocurri\u00f3 en Libia, se\u00f1ala Pierre Razoux, director de estudios de la Fundaci\u00f3n Mediterr\u00e1nea de Estudios Estrat\u00e9gicos (FMES), en referencia al caos que sigui\u00f3 al derrocamiento de Muamar Gadafi en 2011 durante un levantamiento apoyado por la OTAN<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

No obstante, considera poco probable una fragmentaci\u00f3n del pa\u00eds como en Libia: \u00abIr\u00e1n es un pa\u00eds homog\u00e9neo. Aunque existen minor\u00edas, el sentimiento nacional iran\u00ed es fuerte\u00bb.<\/p>\n

El debilitamiento del pa\u00eds tambi\u00e9n podr\u00eda ser aprovechado por grupos hostiles a sus vecinos, como Turqu\u00eda o Pakist\u00e1n<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u00abEn anteriores protestas<\/a>, Turqu\u00eda<\/a> tem\u00eda que, en caso de ca\u00edda del r\u00e9gimen, los grupos kurdos aprovecharan para generar problemas dentro de Turqu\u00eda\u00bb, recordaba en enero Gonul Tol, del Middle East Institute.<\/p>\n

\u00abLos grupos vinculados al PKK se volver\u00edan m\u00e1s activos\u00bb, estima.<\/p>\n

La situaci\u00f3n es similar para Islamabad, que adem\u00e1s mantiene tensiones con Afganist\u00e1n<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Los ataques estadounidenses \u00abtendr\u00edan consecuencias desestabilizadoras para toda la regi\u00f3n, y Pakist\u00e1n podr\u00eda verse especialmente afectado\u00bb, advert\u00eda en enero la analista y exdiplom\u00e1tica Maleeha Lodhi. \u201cCualquier espacio sin control cerca de las fronteras fortalecer\u00eda a los activistas<\/a> en la inestable provincia de Baluchist\u00e1n y representar\u00eda una grave amenaza para su seguridad\u201d.<\/p>\n

Posible afluencia de refugiados<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Algunos pa\u00edses vecinos temen importantes desplazamientos de poblaci\u00f3n o una llegada masiva de refugiados, como ocurri\u00f3 en Turqu\u00eda durante la guerra civil en Siria.<\/p>\n

\u00abEl impacto ser\u00eda probablemente mucho mayor, dada la magnitud del pa\u00eds, su poblaci\u00f3n y su heterogeneidad\u00bb, se\u00f1alaba en enero Sinan \u00dclgen, investigador asociado del centro Carnegie Europe, en referencia a Ir\u00e1n<\/a>, un pa\u00eds de cerca de 90 millones de habitantes pertenecientes a m\u00faltiples comunidades.<\/p>\n

Turqu\u00eda, Azerbaiy\u00e1n<\/a> y Armenia<\/a> est\u00e1n particularmente preocupados \u00abporque ser\u00edan pa\u00edses de destino\u00bb, apunta el analista ruso Nikita Smagin, radicado en Bak\u00fa.<\/p>\n

Temor a una crisis petrolera<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Los Estados petroleros de la regi\u00f3n \u00abest\u00e1n preocupados por posibles ataques contra infraestructuras energ\u00e9ticas y por un eventual bloqueo del flujo\u00bb en el estrecho de Ormuz, se\u00f1alaba a mediados de enero Cinzia Bianco, investigadora sobre el Golfo en el European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).<\/p>\n

Estos pa\u00edses del Golfo est\u00e1n inmersos en agendas pol\u00edticas costosas: cambio de modelo econ\u00f3mico, grandes proyectos de infraestructura y transiciones energ\u00e9ticas.<\/p>\n

\n

\u00abTodo ser\u00eda m\u00e1s complicado con una crisis petrolera. Tener que gestionar las consecuencias de seguridad de un cambio de r\u00e9gimen en Ir\u00e1n a\u00f1adir\u00eda una capa adicional de complejidad\u00bb, explicaba Bianco.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Adem\u00e1s, a\u00f1ade Pierre Razoux, un escenario as\u00ed podr\u00eda empujar a China<\/a>, gran compradora de petr\u00f3leo del Golfo, a reducir sus v\u00ednculos con la regi\u00f3n, en un momento en que las monarqu\u00edas del Golfo intentan disminuir su dependencia comercial de Estados Unidos<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Este art\u00edculo es una adaptaci\u00f3n de su texto original en franc\u00e9s <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00bfHan abierto Israel y Estados Unidos la...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":33421,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[43],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-33420","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-internacionales"],"yoast_head":"\nAfluencia de refugiados, crisis petrolera: \u00bfqu\u00e9 riesgos enfrenta Oriente Medio tras el ataque contra Ir\u00e1n? - Sarmiento24h<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sarmiento24h.com\/?p=33420\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Afluencia de refugiados, crisis petrolera: \u00bfqu\u00e9 riesgos enfrenta Oriente Medio tras el ataque contra Ir\u00e1n? 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