El autor es economista. Reside en Santo Domingo\n<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
En \u00faltimos 25 a\u00f1os el sector construcci\u00f3n ha sido el buque insignia de la econom\u00eda dominicana llegando a aportar el 20% del crecimiento econ\u00f3mico de los a\u00f1os 2014-2016 cuando la econom\u00eda dominicana creci\u00f3 a una tasa promedio anual del 7.1%.<\/p>\n
Durante las primeras dos d\u00e9cadas del siglo XXI fue un sector que generaba m\u00e1s de 300 mil empleos formales, demandaba insumos de diferentes \u00e1reas de la econom\u00eda y tambi\u00e9n demandaba cr\u00e9ditos para financiar proyectos de construcci\u00f3n y para la compra de viviendas.<\/p>\n
El sector construcci\u00f3n aporta el 12% del PIB y constituye el elemento principal en la Formaci\u00f3n Bruta de Capital, o sea el componente de inversi\u00f3n de la Demanda Agregada que es determinante importante de los ciclos de crecimiento econ\u00f3mico, seg\u00fan el BC.<\/p>\n
Tambi\u00e9n tiene una participaci\u00f3n importante en la cartera de cr\u00e9dito tanto como actividad productiva como a trav\u00e9s de la adquisici\u00f3n de viviendas, representando casi el 25% del total de pr\u00e9stamos otorgados al sector privado.<\/p>\n
Sin embargo, a partir de la pandemia el sector construcci\u00f3n empez\u00f3 a perder su dinamismo, y no han valido los esfuerzos del Banco Central para inducir el cr\u00e9dito bancario hacia dicho sector. Todav\u00eda no reacciona de forma positiva.<\/p>\n
El declive se hace cada d\u00eda m\u00e1s evidente hasta llegar a presentar una tasa de crecimiento negativa de -2.3% en el periodo enero-junio de 2025.<\/p>\n
Muchas son las razones que han incidido en la ca\u00edda del sector construcci\u00f3n, solo vamos a mencionar aquellas que consideramos m\u00e1s relevantes.<\/p>\n
La inflaci\u00f3n, que ha estado afectando a todos los insumos b\u00e1sicos de la construcci\u00f3n como el cemento, varilla, y todos aquellos art\u00edculos de ferreter\u00eda, as\u00ed como tambi\u00e9n la tierra y la mano de obra.<\/p>\n
Tambi\u00e9n lo afecta la subida del costo del dinero para financiar proyectos de construcci\u00f3n as\u00ed como para financiar a los adquirientes de viviendas. La tasa de inter\u00e9s tiene una incidencia vital en dicho sector y en los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os se ha mantenido muy elevada.<\/p>\n
Cuando el sector construcci\u00f3n se ralentiza, generalmente aumenta el desempleo, y se afectan las ventas del sector comercial que vende bienes relacionados con dicho sector.<\/p>\n
Y algo m\u00e1s peligroso a\u00fan, es que tiende a aumentar la morosidad de la cartera de pr\u00e9stamos de los bancos porque la combinaci\u00f3n de elevados tipos de inter\u00e9s y devaluaci\u00f3n monetaria afecta el costo de los proyectos en ejecuci\u00f3n, disparando el precio de las unidades construidas haci\u00e9ndolas inalcanzables para aquellos clientes que ya hab\u00edan decidido comprar en planos.<\/p>\n
He ah\u00ed la necesidad de ser cuidadoso al observar el comportamiento de ese sector, por el gran impacto que tiene su comportamiento en el desempe\u00f1o de los bancos.<\/p>\n
Las autoridades monetarias han realizado un gran esfuerzo para orientar miles de millones de pesos al sector construcci\u00f3n pero todav\u00eda no han podido lograr una reacci\u00f3n positiva.<\/p>\n
Al parecer las cifras del sector, correspondiente al per\u00edodo enero-septiembre<\/p>\n
todav\u00eda no han sido publicadas, pero partiendo del escaso crecimiento del PIB para ese per\u00edodo, es f\u00e1cil concluir que al sector construcci\u00f3n, probablemente, no le ha ido muy bien en los primeros nueve meses del a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n
Siendo as\u00ed, el futuro crecimiento de la econom\u00eda dominicana es preocupante y nebuloso.<\/p>\n
\n
Comp\u00e1rtelo en tus redes:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
\n<\/ins> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"El autor es economista. Reside en Santo...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3627,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[60],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3626","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economicas"],"yoast_head":"\n
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