{"id":37854,"date":"2026-03-02T21:38:34","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T21:38:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/69a5d0bb158d224d97d26c39"},"modified":"2026-03-02T21:38:34","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T21:38:34","slug":"si-hay-civilizaciones-extraterrestres-pero-ninguna-dura-mucho-dice-esta-solucion-pesimista-a-la-paradoja-de-fermi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sarmiento24h.com\/?p=37854","title":{"rendered":"S\u00ed hay civilizaciones extraterrestres, pero ninguna dura mucho, dice esta soluci\u00f3n pesimista a la paradoja de Fermi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Si el universo es tan amplio y hay tantas estrellas y planetas, \u00bfd\u00f3nde est\u00e1n todos? La paradoja de Fermi, planteada por el f\u00edsico Enrico Fermi en 1950, re\u00fane varias respuestas posibles: algunos creen que \u201cest\u00e1n escondidos\u201d, otros que \u201csomos los \u00fanicos por aqu\u00ed\u201d. Tambi\u00e9n existe una tercera opci\u00f3n, quiz\u00e1 la m\u00e1s pesimista: s\u00ed hay m\u00e1s civilizaciones en el universo, pero no duran lo suficiente como para encontrarse entre s\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>Una investigaci\u00f3n reciente de dos cient\u00edficos iran\u00edes propone, por primera vez, una cifra concreta sobre cu\u00e1nto tiempo podr\u00eda sobrevivir una <a href=\"https:\/\/es.wired.com\/articulos\/malas-noticias-para-la-busqueda-de-inteligencia-extraterrestre-la-especie-mas-cercana-podria-a-estar-33000-anos-luz-de-distancia\">civilizaci\u00f3n avanzada<\/a> antes de desaparecer. Su conclusi\u00f3n no favorece un futuro c\u00f3smico lleno de vecinos: si la vida inteligente es com\u00fan, la mayor\u00eda de las civilizaciones durar\u00edan menos de 5,000 a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<div class=\"ContentCardEmbedWrapper-hkvhYu kMYDit content-card-embed content-card-embed--stacked\" data-testid=\"ContentCardEmbedWrapper\" readability=\"21.242914979757\">\n<div class=\"ContentCardEmbedImage-bqahne fjmzkP content-card-embed__image\" data-testid=\"ContentCardEmbedImage\" bottomspacing=\"1rem\"><span class=\"SpanWrapper-kFnjvc eKnjjD responsive-asset\"><picture class=\"ResponsiveImagePicture-jKunQM gjCCFj responsive-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Una luci\u00e9rnaga emitiendo luz a un patr\u00f3n r\u00edtmico, en la oscuridad.\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"ResponsiveImageContainer-dkeESL cQPiWi responsive-image__image\" srcset=\"https:\/\/sarmiento24h.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/si-hay-civilizaciones-extraterrestres-pero-ninguna-dura-mucho-dice-esta-solucion-pesimista-a-la-paradoja-de-fermi-1.jpg,c_limit\/GettyImages-1570654197.jpg 120w, https:\/\/media.es.wired.com\/photos\/696543eaff9a6a296b2ae40f\/master\/w_240,c_limit\/GettyImages-1570654197.jpg 240w, https:\/\/media.es.wired.com\/photos\/696543eaff9a6a296b2ae40f\/master\/w_320,c_limit\/GettyImages-1570654197.jpg 320w, https:\/\/media.es.wired.com\/photos\/696543eaff9a6a296b2ae40f\/master\/w_640,c_limit\/GettyImages-1570654197.jpg 640w\" sizes=\"100vw\" src=\"https:\/\/sarmiento24h.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/si-hay-civilizaciones-extraterrestres-pero-ninguna-dura-mucho-dice-esta-solucion-pesimista-a-la-paradoja-de-fermi.jpg\"><\/picture><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"ContentCardEmbedInfo-buyHWH gWLOee\" readability=\"23.174089068826\">\n<div class=\"BaseText-fEwdHD ContentCardEmbedHed-kDKGDs fUtEc dlHXUJ content-card-embed__hed\" data-testid=\"ContentCardEmbedHed\"><a class=\"BaseLink-haTOKm ContentCardEmbedHedLink-iBZsco gAoKdC hhUFQU content-card-embed__hed-link link\" href=\"https:\/\/es.wired.com\/articulos\/la-nueva-forma-de-buscar-inteligencia-extraterrestre-esta-inspirada-en-las-luciernagas\" data-testid=\"ContentCardEmbedHedLink\" colorsecondarylinktoken=\"colors.consumption.body.standard.subhed\" colorstaticlinktoken=\"colors.consumption.body.standard.subhed\" colortoken=\"colors.consumption.body.standard.subhed\" typeidentity=\"typography.definitions.consumptionEditorial.subhed-aux-primary\">La nueva forma de buscar inteligencia extraterrestre est\u00e1 inspirada en las luci\u00e9rnagas<\/a><\/div>\n<p>En la b\u00fasqueda de inteligencia extraterrestre, quiz\u00e1 debamos dejar de pensar de qu\u00e9 estar\u00e1n hechas las se\u00f1ales y, en cambio, poner atenci\u00f3n a su patr\u00f3n.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<hr>\n<p>Una civilizaci\u00f3n con ese l\u00edmite simplemente no vive lo bastante en t\u00e9rminos gal\u00e1cticos. Las se\u00f1ales tecnol\u00f3gicas que emita o reciba llegar\u00e1n demasiado tarde; cualquier civilizaci\u00f3n podr\u00eda detectar solo el eco de otra que ya se extingui\u00f3. Adem\u00e1s, incluso viajar a otro planeta habitable a un 10% de la velocidad de la luz tomar\u00eda milenios, casi la mitad de la vida promedio estimada.<\/p>\n<p>Los autores aclaran que sus resultados, <a data-offer-url=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/2602.22252\" class=\"external-link\" data-event-click=\"{&quot;element&quot;:&quot;ExternalLink&quot;,&quot;outgoingURL&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/2602.22252&quot;}\" href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/2602.22252\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">a\u00fan pendientes de revisi\u00f3n formal<\/a>, no predicen el destino de ninguna civilizaci\u00f3n. M\u00e1s bien establecen restricciones matem\u00e1ticas derivadas del silencio c\u00f3smico que hemos observado hasta ahora.<\/p>\n<h2>\u00bfC\u00f3mo llegaron a la cifra de 5,000 a\u00f1os?<\/h2>\n<p>El c\u00e1lculo surge de combinar una versi\u00f3n simplificada de la <a href=\"https:\/\/es.wired.com\/articulos\/la-paradoja-de-fermi-o-donde-estan-todas-las-civilizaciones-extraterrestres\">ecuaci\u00f3n de Drake<\/a> (la f\u00f3rmula para calcular el n\u00famero de civilizaciones en la galaxia) con un supuesto extremadamente optimista: que todos los planetas habitables tipo terrestre terminan produciendo una civilizaci\u00f3n tecnol\u00f3gica.<\/p>\n<p>Si eso fuera cierto, la V\u00eda L\u00e1ctea deber\u00eda estar llena de sociedades avanzadas coexistiendo hoy. Pero como no se ha detectado ni una, la \u00fanica manera de que el n\u00famero actual sea \u201cuno\u201d (nosotros) es que la vida media de cada civilizaci\u00f3n sea muy corta. Al sustituir estos valores en la ecuaci\u00f3n, el resultado cae en un rango diminuto: alrededor de 5,000 a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n<p>M\u00e1s all\u00e1 del c\u00e1lculo, los cient\u00edficos se\u00f1alan una evidencia a\u00fan m\u00e1s contundente. Se trata del cono de luz de la galaxia, o todo lo que podemos ver del pasado de la <a href=\"https:\/\/es.wired.com\/articulos\/si-existen-los-extraterrestres-hallaremos-su-senal-en-nuestro-punto-de-encuentro-galactico-pero-que-es-eso\">V\u00eda L\u00e1ctea<\/a> gracias al espectro radioel\u00e9ctrico.<\/p>\n<p>La luz tarda unos 100,000 a\u00f1os en cruzarla, as\u00ed que cualquier civilizaci\u00f3n que haya emitido se\u00f1ales tecnol\u00f3gicas en ese periodo deber\u00eda ser detectable hoy. No es necesario que sigan existiendo: basta con que hayan transmitido en alg\u00fan momento dentro de esa ventana. Sin embargo, no recibimos se\u00f1ales ni rastros tecnol\u00f3gicos en esos 100,000 a\u00f1os de historia observable, lo que sugiere que las civilizaciones longevas, si existen, no emiten se\u00f1ales detectables o son extremadamente raras<\/p>\n<p>Los autores insisten en que este l\u00edmite solo sirve para interpretar la paradoja de Fermi. Otras explicaciones siguen sobre la mesa. Quiz\u00e1 las civilizaciones no quieren ser encontradas, quiz\u00e1 usan tecnolog\u00edas indetectables o quiz\u00e1 la humanidad lleg\u00f3 demasiado pronto al escenario c\u00f3smico. Tampoco especulan sobre las causas del posible colapso. En 5,000 a\u00f1os, una civilizaci\u00f3n avanzada podr\u00eda desaparecer por guerras, colapso ambiental o incluso por su propia tecnolog\u00eda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Si el universo es tan amplio y&#46;&#46;&#46;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":37855,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37854","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tecnologia"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.9 - 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