{"id":408505,"date":"2026-09-01T17:19:03","date_gmt":"2026-09-01T17:19:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/diariodigitalrd.com\/?p=717185"},"modified":"2026-09-01T17:19:03","modified_gmt":"2026-09-01T17:19:03","slug":"bonos-mundiales-disparan-su-rentabilidad-a-maximos-desde-2008","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sarmiento24h.com\/?p=408505","title":{"rendered":"Bonos mundiales disparan su rentabilidad a m\u00e1ximos desde 2008"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Tensi\u00f3n por Ir\u00e1n, petr\u00f3leo sobre US$90 y postura de la Fed presionan los mercados de deuda.<\/strong><\/p>\n

La rentabilidad de los bonos soberanos mundiales<\/strong> alcanz\u00f3 el 3,72%, su nivel m\u00e1s elevado desde mediados de 2008, en un escenario marcado por el endurecimiento de las expectativas sobre la pol\u00edtica monetaria de la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos (Fed), el recrudecimiento del conflicto en Ir\u00e1n y el aumento del precio del petr\u00f3leo.<\/p>\n

El movimiento ha tenido un impacto generalizado en los mercados de deuda. En Estados Unidos, el rendimiento del bono del Tesoro a 30 a\u00f1os<\/strong> lleg\u00f3 en las \u00faltimas dos semanas al 5,31%, su nivel m\u00e1s alto desde 2007, mientras que el bono a 10 a\u00f1os alcanz\u00f3 el 4,78%.<\/p>\n

La presi\u00f3n tambi\u00e9n se extendi\u00f3 a Europa. El rendimiento del bono alem\u00e1n a 10 a\u00f1os, conocido como bund<\/em>, se situ\u00f3 en 3,32%<\/strong>, m\u00e1ximo desde 2011, mientras el bono espa\u00f1ol equivalente alcanz\u00f3 el 3,80%, en niveles registrados en 2023.<\/p>\n

En Jap\u00f3n, el rendimiento del bono soberano a 10 a\u00f1os lleg\u00f3 este martes al 3%<\/strong>, su mayor nivel desde 1996. El analista de XTB Javier Cabrera atribuy\u00f3 parte de la preocupaci\u00f3n del mercado a los planes de reducci\u00f3n de impuestos y aumento del gasto de la primera ministra, que podr\u00edan elevar a\u00fan m\u00e1s el endeudamiento de un pa\u00eds cuya deuda supera el 200% del PIB, mientras el yen contin\u00faa d\u00e9bil.<\/p>\n

Conflicto en Ir\u00e1n y petr\u00f3leo elevan la presi\u00f3n<\/h3>\n

Analistas de Bankinter se\u00f1alaron que el incremento generalizado de las rentabilidades de los bonos est\u00e1 relacionado con la reactivaci\u00f3n de los ataques militares de Estados Unidos a Ir\u00e1n<\/strong>, a lo que se suman las sanciones econ\u00f3micas anunciadas por Washington.<\/p>\n

La escalada de tensi\u00f3n en Oriente Medio tuvo como consecuencia inmediata un repunte del petr\u00f3leo por encima de los 90 d\u00f3lares el barril<\/strong>. Seg\u00fan los analistas, un crudo m\u00e1s caro puede generar mayores presiones inflacionarias, lo que a su vez incrementa la presi\u00f3n sobre los bonos y afecta las valoraciones de las bolsas.<\/p>\n

Thomas Hempell, responsable de an\u00e1lisis macro y de mercados de Generali Investments, a\u00f1adi\u00f3 otros factores, entre ellos una comunicaci\u00f3n considerada \u00abconfusa\u00bb por parte de la Fed, el fuerte gasto de capital relacionado con la inteligencia artificial<\/strong>, la elevada emisi\u00f3n de deuda de grandes compa\u00f1\u00edas tecnol\u00f3gicas y los altos d\u00e9ficits p\u00fablicos.<\/p>\n

Crecen las expectativas de una subida de tipos<\/h3>\n

Las rentabilidades retomaron su tendencia alcista despu\u00e9s del discurso del presidente de la Fed, Kevin Warsh<\/strong>, durante la cumbre de Jackson Hole, donde destac\u00f3 la necesidad de priorizar el control de la inflaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

Tras esas declaraciones, la probabilidad de una subida de tipos en septiembre<\/strong> aument\u00f3 hasta cerca del 60%. Firmas como Pimco y Lombard Odier tambi\u00e9n se inclinan por un incremento de las tasas de inter\u00e9s estadounidenses en la pr\u00f3xima reuni\u00f3n de la Fed.<\/p>\n

Bank of America advirti\u00f3 que unos datos econ\u00f3micos muy d\u00e9biles correspondientes a agosto podr\u00edan modificar ese escenario, aunque consider\u00f3 que, salvo una sorpresa negativa importante, la responsabilidad de ejecutar la subida en septiembre recae ahora sobre Warsh.<\/p>\n

En paralelo, comenz\u00f3 la reuni\u00f3n de dos d\u00edas de ministros de Finanzas y bancos centrales del G20<\/strong>, bajo presidencia estadounidense, con la deuda soberana como uno de los principales asuntos de atenci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

El secretario del Tesoro estadounidense, Scott Bessent, defendi\u00f3 el crecimiento y la desregulaci\u00f3n como v\u00edas para reducir los niveles de deuda y se\u00f1al\u00f3 como obst\u00e1culos las cargas regulatorias, los sistemas fiscales deficientes y la insuficiente inversi\u00f3n p\u00fablica y privada.<\/p>\n

Pese al repunte de las rentabilidades, Julius Baer considera que el movimiento contin\u00faa siendo gradual y que, por ahora, no presenta caracter\u00edsticas de un shock de tipos. Su escenario base contempla que los mayores rendimientos impulsen una rotaci\u00f3n dentro de la renta variable, en lugar de poner fin a la tendencia del mercado. Con datos de Europa Press.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tensi\u00f3n por Ir\u00e1n, petr\u00f3leo sobre US$90 y...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":408506,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[59,60],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-408505","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualidad","category-economicas"],"yoast_head":"\nBonos mundiales disparan su rentabilidad a m\u00e1ximos desde 2008 - 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