{"id":413691,"date":"2026-09-04T22:28:16","date_gmt":"2026-09-04T22:28:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/6a9b2feae36f6bc89ed1723a"},"modified":"2026-09-04T22:28:16","modified_gmt":"2026-09-04T22:28:16","slug":"fallamos-superar-1-5-c-de-calentamiento-ya-es-inevitable-segun-la-onu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sarmiento24h.com\/?p=413691","title":{"rendered":"Fallamos: superar 1.5 \u00b0C de calentamiento ya es inevitable, seg\u00fan la ONU"},"content":{"rendered":"

Durante m\u00e1s de una d\u00e9cada, limitar el calentamiento global a 1.5 \u00b0C respecto a los niveles preindustriales ha sido una de las principales referencias de la pol\u00edtica clim\u00e1tica internacional porque marca el umbral a partir del cual los riesgos clim\u00e1ticos se agravan de forma considerable. Ahora, el nuevo informe del Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Medio Ambiente<\/a> (PNUMA) concluye que, bajo las pol\u00edticas actuales y las trayectorias posibles a corto plazo, superar ese l\u00edmite ya se considera inevitable.<\/p>\n

El informe Limiting Overshoot<\/em>, publicado el 2 de septiembre, se\u00f1ala que el planeta probablemente cruzar\u00e1 los 1.5 \u00b0C en los pr\u00f3ximos a\u00f1os. El escenario m\u00e1s optimista sit\u00faa el aumento m\u00e1ximo de la temperatura alrededor de 1.8 \u00b0C, mientras que otras previsiones contemplan picos superiores a 2 \u00b0C. El PNUMA<\/a> plantea una trayectoria de \u201csobrepaso, punto m\u00e1ximo y descenso\u201d, que busca limitar cu\u00e1nto sube la temperatura, reducir el tiempo que permanece por encima de 1.5 \u00b0C y despu\u00e9s tratar de regresar por debajo de ese nivel.<\/p>\n

La advertencia marca un cambio importante en la respuesta internacional al calentamiento global. Los 1.5 \u00b0C siguen siendo una referencia central del Acuerdo de Par\u00eds<\/a>, que establece el objetivo de mantener el aumento de la temperatura mundial muy por debajo de 2 \u00b0C y continuar los esfuerzos para limitarlo a 1.5 \u00b0C. El nuevo escenario coloca el foco en cu\u00e1nto se rebasar\u00e1 ese nivel y durante cu\u00e1nto tiempo.<\/p>\n

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\"Una<\/picture><\/span><\/div>\n
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El \u00abS\u00faper Ni\u00f1o\u00bb promete ser m\u00e1s intenso y lo peor est\u00e1 por venir<\/a><\/div>\n

La Organizaci\u00f3n Meteorol\u00f3gica Mundial advierte que el fen\u00f3meno clim\u00e1tico que est\u00e1 provocando una ola de calor en el Pac\u00edfico durar\u00e1 al menos hasta febrero, con graves consecuencias para el clima en todo el mundo.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n

El planeta ya super\u00f3 1.5 \u00b0C durante un a\u00f1o<\/h2>\n

En 2024, la temperatura media mundial se situ\u00f3 aproximadamente 1.55 \u00b0C por encima del promedio de 1850-1900, de acuerdo con la Organizaci\u00f3n Meteorol\u00f3gica Mundial (OMM)<\/a>. Fue el a\u00f1o m\u00e1s c\u00e1lido de los 175 a\u00f1os de registros disponibles y probablemente el primer a\u00f1o natural completo que super\u00f3 los 1.5 \u00b0C.<\/p>\n

Ese resultado refleja tanto la tendencia de largo plazo provocada por el cambio clim\u00e1tico como variaciones naturales que pueden elevar o reducir temporalmente la temperatura. El calentamiento global se eval\u00faa sobre periodos m\u00e1s largos, por lo que la OMM aclar\u00f3 que el dato de 2024 no implicaba que el mundo hubiera superado de forma sostenida los 1.5 \u00b0C.<\/p>\n

El nuevo informe del PNUMA se centra precisamente en ese escenario de calentamiento sostenido. Naciones Unidas utiliza el t\u00e9rmino overshoot<\/em> o sobrepaso para describir una trayectoria en la que la temperatura rebasa temporalmente un determinado nivel, alcanza un punto m\u00e1ximo y posteriormente comienza a descender.<\/p>\n

La magnitud y la duraci\u00f3n de ese sobrepaso depender\u00e1n en gran medida de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero de los pr\u00f3ximos a\u00f1os. Ambas variables ser\u00e1n determinantes para la intensidad de los impactos que experimenten las sociedades y los ecosistemas.<\/p>\n

Cada d\u00e9cima adicional aumenta los riesgos<\/h2>\n

Los efectos y riesgos del calentamiento aumentan conforme sube la temperatura. Un mundo que alcanza 1.6 \u00b0C, 1.8 \u00b0C o supera 2 \u00b0C enfrenta niveles de riesgo diferentes, por lo que limitar cada fracci\u00f3n adicional de grado sigue teniendo consecuencias importantes.<\/p>\n

El PNUMA advierte que cada fracci\u00f3n adicional de grado y cada a\u00f1o por encima de 1.5 \u00b0C intensifican los riesgos y los impactos del cambio clim\u00e1tico. El Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Clim\u00e1tico (IPCC)<\/a> ya hab\u00eda concluido que los da\u00f1os aumentan conforme crecen la magnitud y la duraci\u00f3n del sobrepaso. Un calentamiento mayor tambi\u00e9n eleva la posibilidad de cruzar puntos de inflexi\u00f3n capaces de desencadenar transformaciones profundas y, en algunos casos, irreversibles.<\/p>\n

La duraci\u00f3n del sobrepaso tambi\u00e9n condiciona las posibilidades de adaptaci\u00f3n. El PNUMA advierte que un calentamiento mayor y m\u00e1s prolongado aumentar\u00eda los impactos sobre la salud, la seguridad alimentaria, el suministro de agua, las ciudades, la infraestructura y las econom\u00edas, adem\u00e1s de acercar a algunos sistemas a sus l\u00edmites de adaptaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Durante m\u00e1s de una d\u00e9cada, limitar el...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":413692,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-413691","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tecnologia"],"yoast_head":"\nFallamos: superar 1.5 \u00b0C de calentamiento ya es inevitable, seg\u00fan la ONU - 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