{"id":448736,"date":"2026-09-24T16:08:03","date_gmt":"2026-09-24T16:08:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/diariodigitalrd.com\/?p=720500"},"modified":"2026-09-24T16:08:03","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T16:08:03","slug":"bonos-mundiales-bajo-presion-por-inflacion-petroleo-sobre-us105-y-alza-de-tasas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sarmiento24h.com\/?p=448736","title":{"rendered":"Bonos mundiales bajo presion por inflaci\u00f3n, petr\u00f3leo sobre US$105 y alza de tasas"},"content":{"rendered":"

El rendimiento del bono del Tesoro de EE. UU. a 10 a\u00f1os lleg\u00f3 al 5,15%, m\u00e1ximo desde 2007.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Los mercados mundiales de bonos atraviesan una revalorizaci\u00f3n sincronizada de los costos de endeudamiento, impulsada por el aumento del precio del petr\u00f3leo, mayores rendimientos soberanos y expectativas de nuevas subidas de tasas, advirti\u00f3 el director ejecutivo de deVere Group<\/strong>, Nigel Green<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

El escenario se produce mientras el crudo Brent supera nuevamente los 105 d\u00f3lares por barril y el rendimiento del bono del Tesoro estadounidense a 10 a\u00f1os alcanza el 5,15%, su nivel m\u00e1s alto desde 2007, con efectos sobre los mercados de deuda de Asia, Europa y el Pac\u00edfico.<\/p>\n

Green sostuvo que la combinaci\u00f3n de petr\u00f3leo elevado, una econom\u00eda estadounidense en expansi\u00f3n y el endurecimiento de las pol\u00edticas monetarias est\u00e1 generando presi\u00f3n simult\u00e1nea sobre los principales mercados de bonos.<\/p>\n

\u201cSe trata de una revalorizaci\u00f3n global y sincronizada de los costes de endeudamiento, y est\u00e1 cobrando velocidad\u201d, afirm\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Rendimientos suben en varias econom\u00edas<\/h2>\n

La presi\u00f3n tambi\u00e9n se refleja en los mercados de deuda de otras grandes econom\u00edas. El rendimiento de los bonos japoneses a 10 a\u00f1os alcanz\u00f3 el 3,08%, su nivel m\u00e1s alto desde 1996, mientras que los bonos brit\u00e1nicos a 10 a\u00f1os llegaron al 5,39%.<\/p>\n

En Alemania, el rendimiento de los bonos Bund alcanz\u00f3 el 3,58%. Australia registr\u00f3 niveles en sus bonos a 10 a\u00f1os no vistos desde 2011 y los costos de endeudamiento de Francia llegaron este mes a su nivel m\u00e1s alto desde 2008.<\/p>\n

En Estados Unidos, los operadores calculan ahora una probabilidad superior al 75% de que la Reserva Federal vuelva a subir las tasas en octubre, frente al 49% de hace una semana y menos del 10% de hace un mes.<\/p>\n

La Reserva Federal<\/strong> elev\u00f3 la semana pasada las tasas a un rango de entre 3,75% y 4%, en su primera subida en tres a\u00f1os. Adem\u00e1s, 16 de sus 18 funcionarios prev\u00e9n al menos un incremento adicional durante este a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

En Australia, los mercados descuentan una probabilidad del 85% de que el Banco de la Reserva de Australia<\/strong> eleve las tasas el 29 de septiembre, mientras el Banco de Jap\u00f3n<\/strong> ya ha endurecido su pol\u00edtica monetaria.<\/p>\n

Nigel Green.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

M\u00e1s deuda y menor apetito inversor<\/h2>\n

Los datos recientes de Estados Unidos tambi\u00e9n aumentaron la incertidumbre. La actividad empresarial crece a su ritmo m\u00e1s r\u00e1pido en m\u00e1s de cinco a\u00f1os, los costos de los insumos avanzan al ritmo m\u00e1s pronunciado en cuatro a\u00f1os y los indicadores manufactureros llegaron a 57, frente a una expectativa de 53,6.<\/p>\n

El apetito por la deuda tambi\u00e9n muestra se\u00f1ales de debilitamiento. Una subasta de bonos del Tesoro estadounidense a cinco a\u00f1os realizada esta semana cerr\u00f3 con un rendimiento de 5,033%, frente a un promedio reciente de 4,186%. Los postores indirectos, entre ellos bancos centrales extranjeros, adquirieron el 54%, frente al 65% habitual.<\/p>\n

La deuda p\u00fablica estadounidense super\u00f3 los 40 billones de d\u00f3lares en agosto, mientras los gobiernos de todo el mundo mantienen elevados d\u00e9ficits. Las empresas estadounidenses hab\u00edan emitido casi 1,7 billones de d\u00f3lares en bonos hasta agosto, un 27% m\u00e1s, destinados en gran parte a financiar el desarrollo de la inteligencia artificial.<\/p>\n

La OCDE<\/strong> advirti\u00f3 que el aumento de los rendimientos representa una preocupaci\u00f3n importante para las finanzas p\u00fablicas.<\/p>\n

El impacto tambi\u00e9n alcanza a los hogares y los mercados burs\u00e1tiles. La tasa promedio de las hipotecas estadounidenses a 30 a\u00f1os con inter\u00e9s fijo subi\u00f3 a 7,26%, su nivel m\u00e1s alto desde enero de 2025. Los futuros de Wall Street descendieron 0,7% el jueves y los futuros tecnol\u00f3gicos retrocedieron 1,2%.<\/p>\n

Green recomend\u00f3 a los inversores revisar su exposici\u00f3n y ampliar la diversificaci\u00f3n entre activos, regiones y divisas ante un escenario en el que los mercados de bonos mundiales permanecen bajo una elevada presi\u00f3n.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El rendimiento del bono del Tesoro de...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":448737,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[60],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-448736","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economicas"],"yoast_head":"\nBonos mundiales bajo presion por inflaci\u00f3n, petr\u00f3leo sobre US$105 y alza de tasas - 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