{"id":468534,"date":"2026-10-05T20:16:52","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T20:16:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/6ac3df5522e3b0475b0c63d5"},"modified":"2026-10-05T20:16:52","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T20:16:52","slug":"un-nuevo-mercado-de-prediccion-te-permite-apostar-dinero-sobre-que-ocurrio-realmente-en-el-pasado","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sarmiento24h.com\/?p=468534","title":{"rendered":"Un nuevo mercado de predicci\u00f3n te permite apostar dinero sobre qu\u00e9 ocurri\u00f3 realmente en el pasado"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/media.es.wired.com\/photos\/6ac3df553ce41521a7dcebdc\/16:9\/w_1280,c_limit\/Business_The%20Dumbest%20Prediction%20Market%20Yet%20Is%20Here,%20and%20It%20Lets%20You%20Bet%20on%20Things%20That%20Have%20Already%20Happened_v1.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\"><\/div>\n<p>Seg\u00fan Rodrigo Aquino, CEO y cofundador de Verifact Markets, los propios mercados no determinar\u00e1n si algo es cierto o falso. Eso significa que, aunque todos los clientes de un mercado concreto votaran \u00abverdadero\u00bb, eso no lo convertir\u00eda necesariamente en tal. Los precios de negociaci\u00f3n se tendr\u00e1n en cuenta junto con otras pruebas y documentaci\u00f3n que los usuarios env\u00eden a la empresa. Tambi\u00e9n tiene previsto lanzar su propio sistema de investigaci\u00f3n, que Aquino describe como \u00abpendiente de patente\u00bb. Cuando le pregunt\u00e9 a Aquino c\u00f3mo funciona el sistema, su respuesta fue: \u00abEstamos analizando, de forma multidimensional, una multitud de puntos de datos\u00bb, afirma, se\u00f1alando que el proceso es \u00abmuy matem\u00e1tico, muy cuantitativo\u00bb y tambi\u00e9n \u00abmuy secreto\u00bb.<\/p>\n<p>Cuando le se\u00f1alo que determinar de forma cre\u00edble c\u00f3mo comenz\u00f3 la pandemia de covid ser\u00eda una noticia de enorme repercusi\u00f3n, ya que resolver\u00eda un misterio que ha eludido a los cient\u00edficos durante a\u00f1os, Aquino se mantiene optimista. \u00abEs factible\u00bb, ratifica.<\/p>\n<p>Verifact afirma que actualmente est\u00e1 en conversaciones con creadores de mercado para proporcionar liquidez. Por el momento, el proyecto es tan peque\u00f1o que est\u00e1 siendo financiado con fondos propios por Positron Capital Management. En EE UU hay varias demandas en curso sobre si <a href=\"https:\/\/es.wired.com\/articulos\/instrumentos-financieros-o-casinos-encubiertos-la-disputa-por-los-mercados-de-prediccion\">los mercados de predicci\u00f3n<\/a> deben considerarse instrumentos financieros o juegos de azar, pero es dif\u00edcil discernir c\u00f3mo encajar\u00eda Verifact en ese debate debido a su modelo de negocio bastante peculiar.<\/p>\n<h2>Solo disponible fuera de EE UU<\/h2>\n<p>Por el momento, la empresa solo ofrece sus mercados a personas fuera de Estados Unidos mientras busca la v\u00eda legal m\u00e1s viable a nivel nacional, ya que no es una bolsa autorizada en ese pa\u00eds. Sin embargo, Wokwicz afirma que adquiri\u00f3 una bolsa financiera regulada el a\u00f1o pasado y tiene la intenci\u00f3n de integrar Verifact en ella cuando pueda. Al igual que el producto descentralizado de Polymarket, Verifact Markets funciona en blockchain, y los participantes pueden <a href=\"https:\/\/es.wired.com\/articulos\/stablecoins-estan-tomando-tu-bolsillo-sin-hacer-ruido\">realizar operaciones con <em>stablecoins<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Verifact Markets forma parte de una oleada de <em>startups<\/em> interesadas en esclarecer los hechos relacionados con noticias pol\u00e9micas y acontecimientos hist\u00f3ricos. Una de las incorporaciones m\u00e1s recientes fue el ef\u00edmero proyecto Objection, financiado por <a href=\"https:\/\/es.wired.com\/articulos\/dialog-la-sociedad-secreta-de-peter-thiel-quedo-expuesta-porque-su-web-estaba-mal-hecha-no-por-un-hackeo\">Peter Thiel<\/a> (posteriormente rebautizado como The Primary), cuyo objetivo era determinar si determinadas noticias de los medios eran veraces. Pero antes de que la labor de verificaci\u00f3n de la verdad llegara a despegar, The Primary dio un giro para dedicarse a la publicaci\u00f3n de noticias y a un sistema de puntuaci\u00f3n para clasificar a los periodistas.<\/p>\n<h2>Decidir lo que es verdadero o falso<\/h2>\n<p>Por ahora, hay muy pocos detalles sobre c\u00f3mo Verifact Markets determinar\u00e1 en \u00faltima instancia si algo es cierto o falso, a pesar de que toda su propuesta de valor se basa en la idea de que se encuentra en una posici\u00f3n \u00fanica para hacerlo. Se trata de una tarea extremadamente ambiciosa, que se complica a\u00fan m\u00e1s por todos los dem\u00e1s detalles que a\u00fan no se han concretado, como la forma en que el proyecto generar\u00e1 ingresos, pues no tiene previsto cobrar cuotas en su lanzamiento. Wokwicz no se centra en ese tipo de cuestiones, al menos no todav\u00eda.<\/p>\n<p>\u00abLo que m\u00e1s me ilusiona son precisamente algunas de las pruebas \u00fanicas que la gente va a descubrir. Vamos a sacar la verdad a la luz: lo que es verdadero y lo que es falso\u00bb, expresa.<\/p>\n<p>Algunos veteranos de los mercados de predicci\u00f3n afirman sentirse intrigados por Verifact Markets, aunque a\u00fan queden muchas preguntas sin respuesta sobre c\u00f3mo funcionar\u00e1. \u00abMe unir\u00e9 solo para poder seguir sacando provecho de las elecciones de 2020 durante el resto de mi vida\u00bb, afirma Caleb Davies, un destacado operador de <a href=\"https:\/\/es.wired.com\/articulos\/un-usuario-anonimo-gana-casi-medio-millon-de-dolares-al-apostar-por-la-caida-de-maduro-en-polymarket\">los mercados de predicci\u00f3n.<\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>Art\u00edculo originalmente publicado en<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/a-prediction-market-about-the-past-sure-why-not\/\">WIRED.com.<\/a> <em>Adaptado por Alondra Flores.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Seg\u00fan Rodrigo Aquino, CEO y cofundador de&#46;&#46;&#46;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":468535,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-468534","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tecnologia"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - 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