{"id":470598,"date":"2026-10-07T00:59:19","date_gmt":"2026-10-07T00:59:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/6ac57fa29f8d24cf3e8327a3"},"modified":"2026-10-07T00:59:19","modified_gmt":"2026-10-07T00:59:19","slug":"que-parte-del-inusual-el-nino-2026-puede-atribuirse-al-cambio-climatico","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sarmiento24h.com\/?p=470598","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfQu\u00e9 parte del inusual El Ni\u00f1o 2026 puede atribuirse al cambio clim\u00e1tico?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/media.es.wired.com\/photos\/6ac5863bc315f7189cafeaea\/16:9\/w_1280,c_limit\/cambio%20clim%C3%A1tico%20El%20Ni%C3%B1o%202298072299.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\"><\/div>\n<p>\u201cHasta el momento, [esta relaci\u00f3n] es una suposici\u00f3n o una probabilidad, pero no se ha estudiado justo porque es el primer fen\u00f3meno en d\u00e9cadas recientes con esta [caracter\u00edstica]. Hay que ser prudentes\u201d, se\u00f1al\u00f3.<\/p>\n<p>El meteor\u00f3logo explica que para establecer esta relaci\u00f3n es necesario hacer estudios de atribuci\u00f3n, que comparan mediante modelos y <a href=\"https:\/\/es.wired.com\/articulos\/nuevo-metodo-para-medir-el-calentamiento-global-muestra-que-ya-hemos-causado-un-aumento-en-la-temperatura-global\">simulaciones<\/a> qu\u00e9 habr\u00eda ocurrido con un fen\u00f3meno determinado en un planeta sin los efectos del calentamiento global frente a un planeta m\u00e1s c\u00e1lido.<\/p>\n<p>Sin embargo, advierte que estas simulaciones tienen limitaciones y no pueden considerarse una prueba absolutamente concluyente, debido a que la existencia, intensidad y frecuencia de diversos eventos no son representadas de la misma manera en estos ejercicios de proyecci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n<p>La raz\u00f3n, seg\u00fan explica, es la falta de datos confiables. \u201cEs dif\u00edcil asegurar que en el a\u00f1o 720 a.C., en el a\u00f1o un mill\u00f3n a.C., no se haya generado [un evento similar de El Ni\u00f1o], \u00bfpor qu\u00e9? Por el simple hecho de que no hubo datos. No hab\u00eda gente que llevara un registro de ello. Entonces, con base en ello, un estudio de atribuci\u00f3n no es 100% confiable. Es muy arriesgado tanto asegurar como negar\u201d, enfatiza.<\/p>\n<p>Aunque el meteor\u00f3logo se\u00f1al\u00f3 que es probable que los efectos derivados de El Ni\u00f1o sean m\u00e1s intensos debido al cambio clim\u00e1tico, tambi\u00e9n afirm\u00f3 que el planeta siempre busca un equilibrio que, a su juicio, <strong>terminar\u00e1 por revertir el calentamiento generado por las actividades humanas.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201cActualmente estamos calentando el planeta por X o Y motivo. Los cient\u00edficos dicen que ya no hay retroceso. Pues el planeta dice lo contrario: por m\u00e1s que se calent\u00f3 y mucho m\u00e1s que ahorita, por m\u00e1s que hubo di\u00f3xido de carbono, much\u00edsimo m\u00e1s que el que actualmente hay, termin\u00f3 enfri\u00e1ndose, termin\u00f3 regul\u00e1ndose\u00bb, se\u00f1ala Cort\u00e9s.<\/p>\n<p>A\u00f1ade el especialista: \u00abEn meteorolog\u00eda se sabe que nuestro planeta siempre busca el equilibrio. Por m\u00e1s que haya calentamiento global, por m\u00e1s que haya fen\u00f3menos extremos, eventualmente va a estar su contraparte para regular eso. Y no se puede, entonces, confiar al 100% que en siglos pasados, que en milenios pasados, no haya ocurrido algo que actualmente estamos viviendo. La \u00fanica, ah\u00ed s\u00ed hay seguridad, la \u00fanica diferencia l\u00f3gica es que no hab\u00eda poblaci\u00f3n para saber c\u00f3mo ocurri\u00f3 ese fen\u00f3meno\u201d.<\/p>\n<h2>No se debe subestimar la crisis clim\u00e1tica<\/h2>\n<p>Francisco Estrada coincide en que es necesario ampliar la investigaci\u00f3n para determinar si el cambio clim\u00e1tico tiene una atribuci\u00f3n directa en la intensidad pronosticada para este fen\u00f3meno de El Ni\u00f1o. Sin embargo, afirma que existen estudios arbitrados que muestran que la variabilidad del fen\u00f3meno se ha ampliado durante aproximadamente los \u00faltimos 60 a\u00f1os, con eventos de mayor magnitud.<\/p>\n<p>El especialista de la UNAM a\u00f1ade que tambi\u00e9n existe evidencia cient\u00edfica de que el calentamiento global est\u00e1 modificando las caracter\u00edsticas del fen\u00f3meno, entre ellas su amplitud, frecuencia y la manera en que sus efectos se distribuyen alrededor del planeta. Por ello, considera que el debate no deber\u00eda plantearse como una elecci\u00f3n entre \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o natural\u201d y \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o provocado por el cambio clim\u00e1tico\u201d, sino como una interacci\u00f3n entre ambos procesos.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u201cNo puedes quitarle a El Ni\u00f1o esta parte de calentamiento global, todo viene pegado\u201d<\/strong>, explica. Por ello, desde la perspectiva de los riesgos, considera m\u00e1s relevante entender c\u00f3mo interact\u00faan ambos fen\u00f3menos y c\u00f3mo esa combinaci\u00f3n afectar\u00e1 a las sociedades.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cHasta el momento, [esta relaci\u00f3n] es una&#46;&#46;&#46;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":470599,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-470598","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tecnologia"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>\u00bfQu\u00e9 parte del inusual El Ni\u00f1o 2026 puede atribuirse al cambio clim\u00e1tico? 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