{"id":479624,"date":"2026-10-11T22:57:06","date_gmt":"2026-10-11T22:57:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/almomento.net\/?p=1157212"},"modified":"2026-10-11T22:57:06","modified_gmt":"2026-10-11T22:57:06","slug":"el-banco-central-entre-tres-fuegos-opinion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sarmiento24h.com\/?p=479624","title":{"rendered":"El Banco Central entre tres fuegos (OPINION)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"gs-tts-pro gs-tts-theme-light\" data-gs-tts-player readability=\"7\">\n<p> <strong>Escuchar art\u00edculo<\/strong> <br \/><button type=\"button\" class=\"gs-tts-btn gs-tts-start\" data-gs-tts-start>Reproducir<\/button> <button type=\"button\" class=\"gs-tts-btn gs-tts-pause\" data-gs-tts-pause>Pausar<\/button> <button type=\"button\" class=\"gs-tts-btn gs-tts-stop\" data-gs-tts-stop>Detener<\/button> <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><strong>POR DANIEL TORIBIO<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>En agosto la econom\u00eda dominicana creci\u00f3 3.8 %, menos que en julio y que en junio. La inflaci\u00f3n permanece por encima de la meta y el d\u00f3lar volvi\u00f3 a subir. En medio de esas se\u00f1ales, el Banco Central aument\u00f3 su tasa de pol\u00edtica monetaria (TPM) de 5.25 % a 5.50 %.<\/p>\n<p>\u00bfPor qu\u00e9 subir la tasa cuando la econom\u00eda pierde velocidad?<\/p>\n<p>Una parte de la respuesta est\u00e1 en una idea econ\u00f3mica conocida como el <i>\u201ctrilema monetario\u201d<\/i> o la <i>\u201ctrinidad imposible\u201d.<\/i><\/p>\n<p>El nombre parece complicado, pero la idea es sencilla. Un pa\u00eds quisiera tener tres cosas al mismo tiempo: estabilidad del tipo de cambio, libertad para que los capitales entren y salgan y autonom\u00eda para manejar su pol\u00edtica monetaria. No puede garantizar las tres simult\u00e1neamente.<\/p>\n<p>Rep\u00fablica Dominicana permite el movimiento de capitales y conserva una pol\u00edtica monetaria propia. Para hacer compatibles ambas cosas, debe aceptar cierta flexibilidad cambiaria.<\/p>\n<p>Las decisiones del Banco Central no dependen mec\u00e1nicamente de la Reserva Federal. Pero tampoco pueden ignorar los rendimientos internacionales, los movimientos de capital y el d\u00f3lar.<\/p>\n<p>El aumento de 25 puntos b\u00e1sicos fue definido como preventivo. La inflaci\u00f3n subyacente estaba en agosto en 4.76 %, dentro del rango meta. El Banco Central busca evitar que las presiones externas terminen traslad\u00e1ndose a otros precios.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-1157216 alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/almomento.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/bc-300x211.png\" alt width=\"365\" height=\"257\" srcset=\"https:\/\/almomento.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/bc-300x211.png 300w, https:\/\/almomento.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/bc-135x95.png 135w, https:\/\/almomento.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/bc-356x250.png 356w, https:\/\/almomento.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/bc.png 660w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 365px) 100vw, 365px\"><\/p>\n<p>La dificultad es que contener esos riesgos tambi\u00e9n tiene costos. La econom\u00eda creci\u00f3 3.8 % en agosto y una pol\u00edtica monetaria m\u00e1s restrictiva puede enfriar todav\u00eda m\u00e1s el cr\u00e9dito y el consumo.<\/p>\n<p>Aqu\u00ed el trilema deja de ser una discusi\u00f3n entre economistas y llega al bolsillo de la gente.<\/p>\n<p><b>Encarecimiento<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Si el Banco Central procura frenar la depreciaci\u00f3n del peso mediante tasas m\u00e1s altas, puede terminar encareciendo el financiamiento de viviendas, veh\u00edculos y peque\u00f1as empresas. Pero si permite una depreciaci\u00f3n excesiva, aumentan los precios de las importaciones y puede subir la inflaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n<p>En ambos casos, las familias enfrentan consecuencias.<\/p>\n<p>Ahora bien, subir la TPM no significa que ma\u00f1ana todos los pr\u00e9stamos ser\u00e1n 25 puntos b\u00e1sicos m\u00e1s caros. Entre la tasa del Banco Central y la que paga una familia intervienen la liquidez, el costo de captaci\u00f3n, el riesgo y las condiciones del mercado.<\/p>\n<p>Adem\u00e1s, esa transmisi\u00f3n puede ser asim\u00e9trica. Durante per\u00edodos de endurecimiento monetario, las tasas activas pueden reaccionar m\u00e1s r\u00e1pidamente que las pasivas. Todav\u00eda no sabemos cu\u00e1nto ocurrir\u00e1 en este episodio.<\/p>\n<p>Por eso, la decisi\u00f3n no debe juzgarse solamente por los 25 puntos b\u00e1sicos anunciados. Habr\u00e1 que observar sus efectos sobre la inflaci\u00f3n, el d\u00f3lar, las tasas bancarias, el cr\u00e9dito y el crecimiento.<\/p>\n<p>El Banco Central tiene autonom\u00eda para decidir, pero no puede escapar del trilema. Puede escoger qu\u00e9 riesgo enfrentar, no eliminar sus costos. Y esos costos, por una v\u00eda o por otra, terminan llegando al bolsillo de la gente.<\/p>\n<p>j<i>pm-am<\/i><\/p>\n<div class=\"heateor_sss_sharing_container heateor_sss_horizontal_sharing\" data-heateor-sss-href=\"https:\/\/almomento.net\/el-banco-central-entre-tres-fuegos-opinion\/\" readability=\"7\">\n<p>Comp\u00e1rtelo en tus redes:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p> <!-- .entry-content --> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Escuchar art\u00edculo Reproducir Pausar Detener POR DANIEL&#46;&#46;&#46;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":479625,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[60],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-479624","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economicas"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - 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