{"id":480846,"date":"2026-10-12T15:38:10","date_gmt":"2026-10-12T15:38:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/diariodigitalrd.com\/?p=723055"},"modified":"2026-10-12T15:38:10","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T15:38:10","slug":"petroleo-cae-por-expectativa-de-tregua-pese-a-tres-crisis-de-suministro","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sarmiento24h.com\/?p=480846","title":{"rendered":"Petr\u00f3leo cae por expectativa de tregua pese a tres crisis de suministro"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hurac\u00e1n, ataques en Arabia Saud\u00ed y guerra entre Rusia y Ucrania elevan los riesgos energ\u00e9ticos.<\/strong><\/p>\n

La ca\u00edda de los precios internacionales del petr\u00f3leo tras el anuncio de una tregua entre Rusia<\/strong> y Ucrania<\/strong> contrasta con las crecientes amenazas al suministro mundial de energ\u00eda, marcadas por la paralizaci\u00f3n de la producci\u00f3n en el Golfo de M\u00e9xico, los ataques con misiles en Arabia Saud\u00ed<\/strong> y la continuidad de la guerra europea. <\/p>\n

Nigel Green<\/strong>, director ejecutivo de deVere Group<\/strong>, advirti\u00f3 que los mercados est\u00e1n reaccionando a expectativas de paz sin que existan cambios comprobados en la disponibilidad f\u00edsica de crudo.<\/p>\n

El Brent<\/strong> retrocedi\u00f3 un 0,77 %, hasta situarse ligeramente por debajo de los 104 d\u00f3lares por barril, mientras el petr\u00f3leo estadounidense descendi\u00f3 un 1,26 %, hasta los 90,70 d\u00f3lares. Los movimientos se produjeron despu\u00e9s de que el presidente Donald Trump<\/strong> anunciara en redes sociales que Mosc\u00fa<\/strong> y Kiev<\/strong> hab\u00edan acordado dejar de atacar mutuamente sus infraestructuras energ\u00e9ticas.<\/p>\n

\n
<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Green sostuvo que el mercado est\u00e1 descontando un posible acuerdo antes de verificar sus resultados. Seg\u00fan explic\u00f3, la ca\u00edda de las cotizaciones no significa que hayan llegado nuevos barriles a las refiner\u00edas ni que se hayan reactivado las instalaciones da\u00f1adas.<\/p>\n

Dos estadounidenses ganan el Nobel de Econom\u00eda por sus aportes a la estabilidad macroecon\u00f3mica<\/a><\/p>\n

Tres frentes amenazan el suministro<\/h2>\n

El directivo record\u00f3 que Washington<\/strong> anunci\u00f3 una tregua similar a mediados de septiembre, pero las dudas de Kiev<\/strong> sobre el compromiso ruso y la continuidad de los ataques a refiner\u00edas impidieron una mejora sostenida. En ese contexto, el precio del di\u00e9sel en Estados Unidos<\/strong> lleg\u00f3 a superar los seis d\u00f3lares por gal\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

La promesa rusa del viernes de exportar m\u00e1s de cuatro millones de toneladas de di\u00e9sel a los mercados internacionales tambi\u00e9n contrasta con la prohibici\u00f3n de exportaciones impuesta previamente por Mosc\u00fa<\/strong>, despu\u00e9s de los da\u00f1os sufridos por sus propias refiner\u00edas.<\/p>\n

A esta incertidumbre se suma el hurac\u00e1n Isaias<\/strong>, identificado en la nota como el primer hurac\u00e1n atl\u00e1ntico de la temporada, que oblig\u00f3 a suspender aproximadamente 1,3 millones de barriles diarios de producci\u00f3n antes de tocar tierra. La cifra representa cerca del 63 % de la producci\u00f3n petrolera del Golfo de M\u00e9xico<\/strong>, una regi\u00f3n que aporta alrededor del 15 % del crudo estadounidense.<\/p>\n

El tercer foco de riesgo se encuentra en Arabia Saud\u00ed<\/strong>. Durante el fin de semana, misiles hut\u00edes impactaron en el aeropuerto de Riad<\/strong>, con un saldo de 12 muertos y m\u00e1s de 300 heridos. La situaci\u00f3n afecta a un pa\u00eds que concentra la mayor parte de la capacidad mundial de producci\u00f3n petrolera excedente.<\/p>\n

Green considera que la coincidencia de estos tres factores justifica una prima de riesgo superior en las cotizaciones, especialmente ante la proximidad del invierno.<\/p>\n

Unctad reduce la previsi\u00f3n de crecimiento mundial para 2026<\/a><\/p>\n

Inflaci\u00f3n y decisiones de inversi\u00f3n<\/h2>\n

En el frente diplom\u00e1tico, el ministro de Asuntos Exteriores de Ir\u00e1n<\/strong> contact\u00f3 a su hom\u00f3logo saud\u00ed y ofreci\u00f3 ayudar a abrir un di\u00e1logo entre Riad<\/strong> y los hut\u00edes. Aunque algunos operadores interpretaron el gesto como una se\u00f1al tranquilizadora, Green advirti\u00f3 que la diplomacia no repara infraestructuras ni restablece de inmediato la confianza en las rutas de suministro.<\/p>\n

El ejecutivo tambi\u00e9n alert\u00f3 sobre las consecuencias econ\u00f3micas de mantener el petr\u00f3leo por encima de los 100 d\u00f3lares por barril. Los mayores costos energ\u00e9ticos pueden trasladarse al transporte, los alimentos y la calefacci\u00f3n, dificultando los recortes de las tasas de inter\u00e9s en las principales econom\u00edas y obligando a reajustar los precios de los bonos y las acciones.<\/p>\n

No obstante, Green se\u00f1al\u00f3 que las crisis energ\u00e9ticas tambi\u00e9n pueden abrir oportunidades de inversi\u00f3n en seguridad energ\u00e9tica, infraestructura de redes, almacenamiento y eficiencia. A su juicio, diversificar la exposici\u00f3n entre regiones y clases de activos, junto con una protecci\u00f3n frente a la inflaci\u00f3n, puede fortalecer la capacidad de los inversionistas para afrontar estos episodios.<\/p>\n

Deuda de pa\u00edses en desarrollo crece m\u00e1s r\u00e1pido y duplica intereses de naciones ricas<\/a><\/p>\n

El directivo concluy\u00f3 que los anuncios pol\u00edticos pueden mover los mercados en cuesti\u00f3n de horas, pero la disponibilidad real de petr\u00f3leo, las condiciones meteorol\u00f3gicas y los ataques militares determinar\u00e1n la evoluci\u00f3n de los precios a mediano plazo.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hurac\u00e1n, ataques en Arabia Saud\u00ed y guerra...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":480847,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[60],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-480846","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economicas"],"yoast_head":"\nPetr\u00f3leo cae por expectativa de tregua pese a tres crisis de suministro - 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