{"id":49024,"date":"2026-03-08T05:18:01","date_gmt":"2026-03-08T05:18:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/almomento.net\/?p=1103639"},"modified":"2026-03-08T05:18:01","modified_gmt":"2026-03-08T05:18:01","slug":"teoria-monetarista-de-los-ciclos-economicos-opinion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sarmiento24h.com\/?p=49024","title":{"rendered":"Teor\u00eda monetarista de los ciclos econ\u00f3micos (OPINION)"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

\"imagen\"<\/a><\/p>\n

El autor es economista. Reside en Santo Domingo\n<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

POR MARCELINO LARA<\/b><\/p>\n

Continuando con los art\u00edculos sobre teor\u00eda de los ciclos econ\u00f3micos capitalistas, en esta ocasi\u00f3n nos vamos a referir a los postulados de la escuela monetarista sobre las recurrentes crisis econ\u00f3micas del capitalismo.<\/p>\n

Pero antes debemos decir que la escuela monetarista est\u00e1 asociada al destacado y laureado profesor de la universidad de Chicago, Milton Friedman, un economista muy influyente en diferentes regiones del mundo a finales de los a\u00f1os 80 y a principios de los 90, pero que a\u00fan hoy, conserva su incidencia en la pol\u00edtica monetaria ejecutada por bancos centrales de diferentes pa\u00edses del globo.<\/p>\n

Para los te\u00f3ricos de la escuela monetarista, los ciclos econ\u00f3micos que suceden con frecuencia en el capitalismo tienen su origen en la variaci\u00f3n de la oferta monetaria, es decir, en la cantidad de dinero que circula en una econom\u00eda.<\/p>\n

Si la cantidad de dinero que circula en la econom\u00eda cae por debajo del crecimiento del PIB, esa escasez de dinero hace subir la tasa de inter\u00e9s que a su vez hace disminuir el cr\u00e9dito para inversi\u00f3n, produciendo una contracci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica, dicen los monetaristas.<\/p>\n

De esta forma, concluyeron que las crisis del sistema capitalista se origina por una insuficiencia de dinero en la econom\u00eda, y por tanto, para superar dicha crisis s\u00f3lo hay que aumentar la cantidad de dinero circulante en dicha econom\u00eda.<\/p>\n

Magin D\u00edaz, ministro de Hacienda<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Y como la cantidad de dinero que circula en una econom\u00eda es responsabilidad del Banco Central, la soluci\u00f3n es que dicha instituci\u00f3n ejecute una pol\u00edtica monetaria expansiva que incremente la cantidad de dinero en la econom\u00eda para que baje la tasa de inter\u00e9s, provocando as\u00ed un aumento del cr\u00e9dito que haga crecer la inversi\u00f3n, y de esta forma hacer aumentar la producci\u00f3n y el empleo.<\/p>\n

Los cr\u00edticos de esta teor\u00eda nos dicen que expandir la cantidad dinero circulante en la econom\u00eda podr\u00eda generar inflaci\u00f3n y escasez de bienes y servicios.<\/p>\n

Como se puede observar las teor\u00edas econ\u00f3micas no son varitas m\u00e1gicas que al ser aplicadas pueden resolver un problema econ\u00f3mico sino que m\u00e1s bien deben ser contextualizadas y adaptadas a las circunstancias socioecon\u00f3micas de cada naci\u00f3n, porque algunas de esas teor\u00edas econ\u00f3micas son muy eficientes para evitar caer en una crisis, y otras han resultado muy eficientes para salir de dicha crisis, en el corto plazo.<\/p>\n

Aprender a identificar cu\u00e1l de estas teor\u00edas es m\u00e1s eficiente en cada momento es la tarea esencial del profesional de la econom\u00eda porque hist\u00f3ricamente ninguna de ellas ha eliminado por completo la posibilidad de los ciclos econ\u00f3micos del sistema capitalista de producci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

Ludwig Von Mises, John Maynard Keynes, y Milton Friedman son tres destacados economistas cuyas teor\u00edas de los ciclos econ\u00f3micos sirven de base para la estructuraci\u00f3n de las pol\u00edticas econ\u00f3micas que hoy d\u00eda son ejecutadas en diferentes pa\u00edses del mundo, tal como lo hemos explicado en tres art\u00edculos dedicados a explicar sus teor\u00edas.<\/p>\n

No obstante, Keynes y Friedman son los m\u00e1s usados para formular pol\u00edticas econ\u00f3micas anticiclicas porque sus teor\u00edas fueron desarrolladas despu\u00e9s de la Gran crisis econ\u00f3mica de 1930, siendo estas una recomendaci\u00f3n para superar la crisis capitalista en el corto plazo.<\/p>\n

Por su parte, Von Mises escribi\u00f3 antes la crisis del capitalismo en 1930, por lo que su teor\u00eda de los ciclos econ\u00f3micos es m\u00e1s bien una recomendaci\u00f3n de c\u00f3mo evitar llegar a una crisis econ\u00f3mica. Desarroll\u00f3 su teor\u00eda basado en la observaci\u00f3n de los acontecimientos econ\u00f3micos sucedidos en su natal Austria que llevaron a la h\u00edper inflaci\u00f3n y a una fuerte devaluaci\u00f3n de la moneda.<\/p>\n

Y aunque sus aportes han sido hist\u00f3ricamente ignorados, y nunca recibi\u00f3 un premio Nobel de econom\u00eda, en cierta forma fue reivindicado a trav\u00e9s de su alumno Friederich Hayek, que si fue reconocido con el premio Nobel, despu\u00e9s de haber contribuido, en cierta forma, a matematimizar los postulados de su maestro.<\/p>\n

Nueva pol\u00edtica<\/b><\/p>\n

Al leer la presentaci\u00f3n del Ministro de Hacienda y Econom\u00eda en la C\u00e1mara Americana de Comercio podemos observar que est\u00e1 haciendo uso de los postulados te\u00f3ricos keynesianos y monetaristas para recomendar una nueva pol\u00edtica econ\u00f3mica que induzca a un nuevo impulso del PIB de la econom\u00eda dominicana.<\/p>\n

Sin embargo, el Ministro no reconoce en su presentaci\u00f3n, el agotamiento del modelo econ\u00f3mico basado en manos de obra barata legal e ilegal, y el car\u00e1cter esencialmente rentista, de la estructura de producci\u00f3n de la econom\u00eda dominicana.<\/p>\n

A este modelo econ\u00f3mico dominicano ya no le cabe m\u00e1s parches, si no lo transformamos, simplemente estar\u00edamos posponiendo la pr\u00f3xima crisis. Esa es mi recomendaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

jpm-am<\/i><\/p>\n

\n

Comp\u00e1rtelo en tus redes:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n


\n<\/ins> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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