{"id":505801,"date":"2026-10-26T13:09:48","date_gmt":"2026-10-26T13:09:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/diariodigitalrd.com\/?p=725170"},"modified":"2026-10-26T13:09:48","modified_gmt":"2026-10-26T13:09:48","slug":"experto-advierte-lula-enfrenta-71-dias-para-contener-la-presion-financiera-sobre-brasil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sarmiento24h.com\/?p=505801","title":{"rendered":"Experto advierte Lula enfrenta 71 d\u00edas para contener la presi\u00f3n financiera sobre Brasil"},"content":{"rendered":"

La firma alerta sobre riesgos para los mercados emergentes ante la deuda, las tasas de inter\u00e9s y la incertidumbre fiscal brasile\u00f1a.<\/strong><\/p>\n

El presidente electo de Brasil<\/strong>, Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva<\/strong>, dispone de 71 d\u00edas hasta la fecha de toma de posesi\u00f3n prevista para el 5 de enero para ofrecer se\u00f1ales de disciplina fiscal y recuperar la confianza de los mercados, seg\u00fan advirti\u00f3 Nigel Green<\/strong>, director ejecutivo de deVere Group<\/strong>, organizaci\u00f3n independiente de asesoramiento financiero.<\/p>\n

En un comunicado difundido este lunes, remitido a DiariodigialRD, Green alert\u00f3 sobre las repercusiones internacionales de la reacci\u00f3n de los inversores al resultado electoral brasile\u00f1o. Seg\u00fan su an\u00e1lisis, la incertidumbre sobre la futura pol\u00edtica econ\u00f3mica podr\u00eda extender las p\u00e9rdidas m\u00e1s all\u00e1 de Brasil y afectar fondos de mercados emergentes, bonos latinoamericanos y carteras de pensiones con inversiones internacionales.<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/div>\n

El directivo sostiene que los mercados deber\u00e1n evaluar la capacidad del pr\u00f3ximo Gobierno para contener el endeudamiento y presentar un plan fiscal cre\u00edble. La evoluci\u00f3n del presupuesto de 2027 ser\u00e1, a su juicio, uno de los principales indicadores para determinar la direcci\u00f3n de la confianza financiera.<\/p>\n

Abinader felicita a Lula tras su reelecci\u00f3n y aboga por integraci\u00f3n regional<\/a><\/p>\n

Ca\u00eddas burs\u00e1tiles y presi\u00f3n sobre el real<\/h2>\n

Green se\u00f1al\u00f3 que, durante las primeras operaciones en Asia, un fondo cotizado en Tokio que sigue las acciones brasile\u00f1as perdi\u00f3 cerca del 15 %, mientras que los futuros del real registraron una ca\u00edda aproximada del 10 %.<\/p>\n

La reacci\u00f3n se produjo despu\u00e9s de que numerosos inversores internacionales posicionaran sus carteras ante la expectativa de una victoria conservadora y de una pol\u00edtica orientada a reducir el gasto p\u00fablico.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

De acuerdo con el comunicado, las acciones brasile\u00f1as hab\u00edan acumulado un avance de alrededor del 27 % durante el a\u00f1o, impulsadas en parte por el capital extranjero. Green advirti\u00f3 que una reversi\u00f3n de esas posiciones podr\u00eda ampliar las p\u00e9rdidas.<\/p>\n

Tambi\u00e9n destac\u00f3 la exposici\u00f3n de los inversores al real mediante operaciones de carry trade<\/em>, que buscan aprovechar los diferenciales entre las tasas de inter\u00e9s de distintos pa\u00edses. Una depreciaci\u00f3n significativa de la moneda puede reducir los rendimientos obtenidos por esas estrategias.<\/p>\n

El directivo considera poco probable que prospere la solicitud de anulaci\u00f3n electoral atribuida al candidato derrotado, Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro<\/strong>, debido a un margen de victoria superior a cuatro millones de votos. No obstante, sostiene que la principal preocupaci\u00f3n financiera est\u00e1 relacionada con las cuentas p\u00fablicas y la orientaci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica del nuevo Gobierno.<\/p>\n

Deuda p\u00fablica y desaf\u00edos del presupuesto<\/h2>\n

Entre los indicadores citados por Green figura una deuda p\u00fablica bruta equivalente al 82,9 % del producto interno bruto (PIB) en agosto, el nivel m\u00e1s elevado desde principios de 2021. Tambi\u00e9n se\u00f1al\u00f3 que la tasa de inter\u00e9s oficial se mantiene en el 13,75 %, pese a cinco recortes consecutivos, y que la morosidad de los pr\u00e9stamos de los hogares atraviesa su peor situaci\u00f3n en dos d\u00e9cadas.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

El presupuesto de 2027 representa otro desaf\u00edo, debido a la necesidad de negociar medidas fiscales en un Congreso que, seg\u00fan el comunicado, tendr\u00e1 la composici\u00f3n m\u00e1s conservadora desde el retorno de Brasil a la democracia.<\/p>\n

Green advirti\u00f3, adem\u00e1s, que una reducci\u00f3n generalizada de la exposici\u00f3n a activos brasile\u00f1os podr\u00eda extenderse a M\u00e9xico, Chile y Colombia<\/strong>, incluso si las condiciones econ\u00f3micas de esos pa\u00edses son diferentes.<\/p>\n

A su entender, el caso brasile\u00f1o tambi\u00e9n servir\u00e1 como referencia para evaluar la tolerancia de los mercados de bonos al endeudamiento p\u00fablico. La diversificaci\u00f3n entre regiones y monedas, concluy\u00f3, puede ayudar a reducir el impacto de las fluctuaciones cambiarias y de los cambios repentinos en las expectativas de los inversores.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La firma alerta sobre riesgos para los...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":505802,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[60],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-505801","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economicas"],"yoast_head":"\nExperto advierte Lula enfrenta 71 d\u00edas para contener la presi\u00f3n financiera sobre Brasil - 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