{"id":5561,"date":"2025-12-30T00:51:27","date_gmt":"2025-12-30T00:51:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sarmiento24h.com\/?p=5561"},"modified":"2025-12-30T00:51:46","modified_gmt":"2025-12-30T00:51:46","slug":"economista-haivanjoe-ng-cortinas-advierte-2026-no-es-una-crisis-economica-pero-si-el-ano-mas-exigente","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sarmiento24h.com\/?p=5561","title":{"rendered":"Economista Haivanjoe Ng Corti\u00f1as advierte: 2026 no es una crisis econ\u00f3mica, pero s\u00ed el a\u00f1o m\u00e1s exigente"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

El a\u00f1o 2026 marcar\u00e1 un punto de inflexi\u00f3n en la din\u00e1mica fiscal y financiera de la Rep\u00fablica Dominicana. No por el tama\u00f1o de la deuda p\u00fablica, que se mantiene en niveles manejables, sino porque ser\u00e1 el a\u00f1o en que el servicio de la deuda alcanzar\u00e1 su mayor presi\u00f3n, desplazando el debate desde el stock \u2014cu\u00e1nto se debe\u2014 hacia el flujo \u2014c\u00f3mo y cu\u00e1ndo se paga\u2014.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Este cambio de enfoque no es menor. En 2026, el servicio de la deuda pondr\u00e1 a prueba la liquidez fiscal, el mercado financiero interno y la estabilidad cambiaria, convirti\u00e9ndose en el punto de mayor exigencia del ciclo inmediato.

El frente externo: m\u00e1xima presi\u00f3n sobre las divisas<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

En 2026, el servicio de la deuda externa ascender\u00e1 a US$5,847 millones, el nivel m\u00e1s elevado del per\u00edodo cercano. Este monto est\u00e1 impulsado por una amortizaci\u00f3n excepcionalmente alta, asociada al vencimiento de bonos colocados en la \u00faltima d\u00e9cada, a lo que se suman intereses cercanos a los US$3,000 millones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Este volumen de pagos implica una demanda significativa de d\u00f3lares por parte del propio Estado, concentrada en determinados meses, lo que puede generar tensiones temporales en el mercado cambiario. Aunque la econom\u00eda dominicana cuenta con fuentes estructurales de divisas \u2014turismo, remesas e inversi\u00f3n extranjera\u2014, estos flujos no siempre coinciden con los picos de vencimientos del sector p\u00fablico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En este contexto, el Resultado Neto de las Operaciones de Mercado Cambiario (REMA) se convierte en un indicador clave para monitorear presiones de corto plazo, especialmente en un entorno donde el peso dominicano ya mostr\u00f3 una depreciaci\u00f3n de 4.2 % en 2025, con el d\u00f3lar rondando los RD$64.

El frente interno: rigidez fiscal y peso cuasi-fiscal<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

La presi\u00f3n no proviene solo del exterior. En 2026, el servicio de la deuda interna del Gobierno Central alcanzar\u00e1 alrededor de RD$231 mil millones, reflejando un salto abrupto en las amortizaciones y un nivel elevado de intereses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Un componente central de esta carga es el Plan de Recapitalizaci\u00f3n del Banco Central, cuyo costo cuasi-fiscal aportar\u00e1 cerca de RD$39,500 millones al gasto corriente. Este elemento introduce una rigidez adicional al presupuesto y limita el margen para reasignar recursos hacia inversi\u00f3n p\u00fablica o gasto social.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El resultado es una estructura fiscal cada vez m\u00e1s condicionada por compromisos financieros previamente adquiridos. El saldo total del sector p\u00fablico no financiero se sit\u00faa en US$61,616.9 millones.

Intereses: el gasto m\u00e1s inflexible del presupuesto<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

En 2026, el pago de intereses \u2014externos e internos\u2014 absorber\u00e1 alrededor del 24 % de los ingresos corrientes del Gobierno y m\u00e1s del 20 % del gasto p\u00fablico total. Esta proporci\u00f3n confirma que los intereses se han convertido en el componente m\u00e1s inflexible del presupuesto, reduciendo de forma significativa el espacio de maniobra fiscal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Para cubrir estos compromisos, el Estado deber\u00e1 recurrir a nuevas colocaciones de deuda, que superan los RD$401 mil millones, profundizando una din\u00e1mica de refinanciamiento: m\u00e1s deuda para pagar deuda. Aunque esta pr\u00e1ctica no es inusual en econom\u00edas emergentes, incrementa la exposici\u00f3n a choques externos, cambios en las condiciones financieras internacionales y episodios de volatilidad cambiaria.

No es una crisis, pero s\u00ed el a\u00f1o m\u00e1s exigente<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

La Rep\u00fablica Dominicana no enfrenta un problema de solvencia ni una crisis de deuda. Con una deuda del Gobierno Central cercana al 48 % del PIB, el nivel sigue siendo manejable. Sin embargo, 2026 ser\u00e1 el a\u00f1o de mayor estr\u00e9s financiero del ciclo inmediato, debido a la concentraci\u00f3n de pagos, el peso de los intereses y la sensibilidad del mercado cambiario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La diferencia entre un ajuste ordenado y un episodio de tensi\u00f3n innecesaria estar\u00e1 en la anticipaci\u00f3n, la coordinaci\u00f3n entre la pol\u00edtica fiscal y monetaria y una gesti\u00f3n activa del calendario de deuda. La ventana para actuar a\u00fan est\u00e1 abierta, pero 2026 no dejar\u00e1 mucho margen para la improvisaci\u00f3n.

Por: Haivanjoe Ng Corti\u00f1as<\/strong><\/em>
Economista<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El a\u00f1o 2026 marcar\u00e1 un punto de...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5560,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[60],"tags":[93],"class_list":["post-5561","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economicas","tag-ngcortinas"],"yoast_head":"\nEconomista Haivanjoe Ng Corti\u00f1as advierte: 2026 no es una crisis econ\u00f3mica, pero s\u00ed el a\u00f1o m\u00e1s exigente - Sarmiento24h<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sarmiento24h.com\/?p=5561\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Economista Haivanjoe Ng Corti\u00f1as advierte: 2026 no es una crisis econ\u00f3mica, pero s\u00ed el a\u00f1o m\u00e1s exigente - 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