Por MARCELINO LARA<\/strong><\/p>\nA continuaci\u00f3n haremos un breve resumen de las principales variables de la econom\u00eda dominicana en 2025:<\/p>\n
En el a\u00f1o que reci\u00e9n finaliza la econom\u00eda dominicana creci\u00f3 a una tasa de 2.25%, muy por debajo del crecimiento potencial del 5% establecido por el Banco Central.<\/p>\n
Este escaso crecimiento queda anulado con una inflaci\u00f3n del 4.23%, que aunque est\u00e1 dentro de los par\u00e1metros establecidos por las autoridades, es la inflaci\u00f3n m\u00e1s alta desde que el BC inici\u00f3 en el pa\u00eds el esquema de metas de inflaci\u00f3n. Obviamente, dejando fuera los a\u00f1os 2020-22 por causa de pandemia.<\/p>\n
Es preciso aclarar que la inflaci\u00f3n en el precio de los alimentos super\u00f3 el 30% en 2025.<\/p>\n
Por su parte, la tasa de cambio alcanz\u00f3 el nivel r\u00e9cord de RD$64.50 a pesar de que las remesas fueron de unos US$10,780.0 millones de d\u00f3lares y las reservas internacionales de US$14,274.0 millones de d\u00f3lares, seg\u00fan proyecciones del BC.<\/p>\n
Los ingresos totales proyectados en dolares ascender\u00edan a unos US$46,000.0 millones.<\/p>\n
En lo referente al comercio exterior se espera un d\u00e9ficit comercial de unos US$14,500 millones.<\/p>\n
D\u00e9ficit<\/strong><\/p>\nCon relaci\u00f3n a la parte fiscal se espera un d\u00e9ficit presupuestario de unos 280 mil millones de pesos y unos pagos por intereses de la deuda de m\u00e1s de 300 Mil millones de pesos, con d\u00e9ficit por encima del 3.0% del PIB.<\/p>\n
Los intereses de la deuda ya alcanzaron casi la cuarta parte de de los ingresos totales para un 24.2%.<\/p>\n
Por otra parte, el monto de la evasi\u00f3n y eluci\u00f3n fiscal contin\u00faa aumentando hasta rondar unos 600 mil millones de pesos, proyectando un gasto tributario del 4.5%, superando a la media regional del 3.8%, seg\u00fan dato de la CEPAL.<\/p>\n
El gasto de capital ha alcanzado una reducci\u00f3n hist\u00f3rica mientras el gasto corriente se dispara tambi\u00e9n a niveles hist\u00f3ricos, impulsado entre otras razones por una n\u00f3mina de empleados p\u00fablicos que ya asciende a 750 mil personas, y un gasto social sin control, solamente amparado en el populismo pol\u00edtico y econ\u00f3mico.<\/p>\n
Finalmente, el subsidio el\u00e9ctrico ya supera los 2 mil millones de d\u00f3lares mientras la p\u00e9rdida en la energ\u00eda servida alcanza el 42%, lo cual refleja el rotundo fracaso de las actuales autoridades que recibieron el sector el\u00e9ctrico con un subsidio de apenas 500 millones de d\u00f3lares y p\u00e9rdidas del 29%.<\/p>\n
Necesitamos salir de ese c\u00edrculo sangriento de tomar prestado para cubrir el gasto corriente lo cual es financieramente insostenible y amenaza toda la estabilidad macroecon\u00f3mica alcanzada en las \u00faltimas dos d\u00e9cadas.<\/p>\n
jpm-am<\/p>\n
\n
Comp\u00e1rtelo en tus redes:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
\n<\/ins> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"El autor es economista . Reside en...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5950,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[60],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5949","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economicas"],"yoast_head":"\n
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