{"id":62975,"date":"2026-03-15T07:17:28","date_gmt":"2026-03-15T07:17:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/almomento.net\/?p=1105225"},"modified":"2026-03-15T07:17:28","modified_gmt":"2026-03-15T07:17:28","slug":"esto-va-palargo-prudencia-y-prevision","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sarmiento24h.com\/?p=62975","title":{"rendered":"Esto va pa`largo: prudencia y previsi\u00f3n"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><!-- .entry-header --> <\/p>\n<div class=\"img_center\"> <a href=\"https:\/\/sarmiento24h.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/esto-va-palargo-prudencia-y-prevision.jpg\" title=\"Esto va pa`largo: prudencia y previsi\u00f3n\" data-toggle=\"lightbox\" class=\"thickbox\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/sarmiento24h.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/esto-va-palargo-prudencia-y-prevision.jpg\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"imagen\" title=\"Esto va pa`largo: prudencia y previsi\u00f3n\" data-toggle data-title=\"Esto va pa`largo: prudencia y previsi\u00f3n\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>El autor es economista. Reside en Santo Domingo\n<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><b>POR OMAROY M\u00c9NDEZ GARC\u00cdA<\/b><\/p>\n<p>A partir del a\u00f1o 1974 fue decidido por varias naciones mantener una cantidad equivalente a un m\u00ednimo legal de 90 d\u00edas de consumo de petr\u00f3leo como reservas, aunque hay pa\u00edses con cantidades que exceden dicho tiempo.<\/p>\n<p>Esta decisi\u00f3n fue producto de la crisis del a\u00f1o 1973, donde la OPEP impuso un embargo a naciones que apoyaron a Israel en la guerra del Yom Kipur. Llamada as\u00ed, porque fue durante las fiestas del arrepentimiento, ayuno y rezos que se realiza diez d\u00edas despu\u00e9s del a\u00f1o nuevo jud\u00edo.<\/p>\n<p>Las referidas reservas son un contingente para proteger a las econom\u00edas de interrupciones bruscas en el suministro de combustible considerando como estrat\u00e9gico el disponer del extracto de dinosaurio para mantener sus econom\u00edas funcionando.<\/p>\n<p>El grupo selecto que comprenden los miembros son 32 pa\u00edses que conforman la Agencia Internacional de Energ\u00eda (AIE). Como es de esperar est\u00e1n EE. UU., Jap\u00f3n, Alemania, Francia, Reino Unido, Canad\u00e1, Italia, Espa\u00f1a, M\u00e9xico, entres varios m\u00e1s.<\/p>\n<p>Aunque hay varias naciones no miembros como son China que posee una de las mayores reservas estatales y comerciales del mundo, que se estiman en 1,100 millones de barriles. Y la India que ha incrementado considerablemente sus reservas en los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n<p>La decisi\u00f3n de la AIE de disponer de las mencionadas reservas en 400 millones de barriles, la cual es la m\u00e1s grande de la historia, es un indicio de que la guerra est\u00e1 en camino a prolongarse mucho m\u00e1s (estimamos cuatro a seis meses) de lo que pensaron EE.UU. e Israel.<\/p>\n<p>Mediante el estrecho de Ormuz transita la quinta parte del petr\u00f3leo mundial, es decir m\u00e1s o menos 20 millones de barriles diarios, los cuales se han reducido considerablemente despu\u00e9s de que Ir\u00e1n minara sus aguas.<\/p>\n<p>La decisi\u00f3n de los pa\u00edses de la AIE, es una medida de contingencia que evidencia la real posibilidad de desabastecimiento y a la vez es paliativo para amortiguar la incertidumbre que tienen los mercados. Siendo esto una forma de decir que tienen la capacidad para evitar la especulaci\u00f3n de aquellos que apuestan a la subida.<\/p>\n<p>La anterior decisi\u00f3n es tambi\u00e9n una respuesta a China, la cual est\u00e1 acumulando reservas sin frenos por lo que los pa\u00edses de la AIE necesitan soltar el oro negro para evitar que esta \u00faltima compre \u201cspot\u201d (al contado) el poco que hay en el mercado conllevando ello al alza del producto y a la vez dejando a Europa y EE.UU., desabastecidos.<\/p>\n<p>Se infiere que al soltar 400 millones los actores de esta guerra saben que el retomar la producci\u00f3n de la infraestructura petrolera del golfo y eliminar las minas del estrecho, no ser\u00e1 una realidad al corto plazo.<\/p>\n<p>Dado todo lo anterior se recomienda al gobierno ser prudente y tomar medidas previsoras con suficiente tiempo para evitar los posibles efectos de esta nefasta realidad, m\u00e1xime en la antesala de un a\u00f1o preelectoral.<\/p>\n<p><i><a id=\"m_1002489103808865712OWA9e9899c1-40c5-a34e-e6ac-d6d5d02dbe9b\" href=\"mailto:omaroymendezg@outlook.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">omaroymendezg@outlook.com<\/a><\/i><\/p>\n<p>jpm-am<\/p>\n<div class=\"heateor_sss_sharing_container heateor_sss_horizontal_sharing\" data-heateor-sss-href=\"https:\/\/almomento.net\/esto-va-palargo-prudencia-y-prevision\/\">\n<p>Comp\u00e1rtelo en tus redes:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>ALMOMENTO.NET publica los art\u00edculos de opini\u00f3n sin hacerles correcciones de redacci\u00f3n. Se reserva el derecho de rechazar los que est\u00e9n mal redactados, con errores de sintaxis o faltas ortogr\u00e1ficas.<\/p>\n<p> <!-- 468x60 --><br \/>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3511341636159665\" data-ad-slot=\"3538255450\"><\/ins> <!-- .entry-content --> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>El autor es economista. Reside en Santo&#46;&#46;&#46;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":62976,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[63],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-62975","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Esto va pa`largo: prudencia y previsi\u00f3n - Sarmiento24h<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sarmiento24h.com\/?p=62975\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Esto va pa`largo: prudencia y previsi\u00f3n - Sarmiento24h\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"El autor es economista. 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