SANTO DOMINGO.- El diputado del exterior y analista en asuntos internacionales, Ram\u00f3n Ceballo, advirti\u00f3 que el actual conflicto entre Estados Unidos, Israel e Ir\u00e1n podr\u00eda extenderse m\u00e1s all\u00e1 de lo previsto inicialmente, en un contexto de alta tensi\u00f3n geopol\u00edtica y con repercusiones directas sobre la econom\u00eda mundial.<\/p>\n
Durante una entrevista en el programa Propuesta de la Noche, transmitido por Teleimpacto, canales 52 y 22, bajo la conducci\u00f3n del periodista Manuel Jim\u00e9nez, el especialista sostuvo que la evoluci\u00f3n del conflicto evidencia un escenario m\u00e1s complejo de lo anticipado, tanto en el plano militar como pol\u00edtico .<\/p>\n
\u201cEl planteamiento de que esta guerra durar\u00eda pocas semanas no se corresponde con la realidad que estamos viendo hoy\u201d, afirm\u00f3, al tiempo que se\u00f1al\u00f3 que la confrontaci\u00f3n ha entrado en una fase de mayor intensidad y con perspectivas inciertas de resoluci\u00f3n en el corto plazo.<\/p>\n
Ceballo consider\u00f3 que uno de los factores determinantes en la prolongaci\u00f3n del conflicto es la capacidad de respuesta de Ir\u00e1n, la cual \u2014seg\u00fan explic\u00f3\u2014 ha superado las expectativas iniciales. \u201cIr\u00e1n ha demostrado una capacidad de resistencia y de ofensiva que obliga a replantear cualquier c\u00e1lculo r\u00e1pido sobre el desenlace de esta guerra\u201d, indic\u00f3 .<\/p>\n
En ese sentido, advirti\u00f3 que la participaci\u00f3n de Estados Unidos podr\u00eda incrementarse si Israel no logra contener por s\u00ed solo la ofensiva iran\u00ed. \u201cSi no hay una mayor intervenci\u00f3n estadounidense, es poco probable que en pocas semanas se logre neutralizar la estructura militar de Ir\u00e1n\u201d, sostuvo.<\/p>\n
El analista tambi\u00e9n subray\u00f3 que el conflicto no solo tiene implicaciones militares, sino que se inscribe en una disputa estrat\u00e9gica por el control de rutas energ\u00e9ticas clave, particularmente el estrecho de Ormuz. \u201cPor ese punto transita alrededor del 20 a 22 por ciento del petr\u00f3leo mundial, lo que convierte la zona en un eje fundamental para la econom\u00eda global\u201d, explic\u00f3 .<\/p>\n
A su juicio, las tensiones en esa \u00e1rea ya est\u00e1n teniendo efectos concretos en los mercados energ\u00e9ticos. \u201cEl petr\u00f3leo ha comenzado a subir de manera sostenida y, si la situaci\u00f3n no se estabiliza, podr\u00eda alcanzar niveles de entre 150 y 200 d\u00f3lares por barril\u201d, advirti\u00f3 .<\/p>\n
En el \u00e1mbito geopol\u00edtico, Ceballo plante\u00f3 que el conflicto refleja un proceso de transformaci\u00f3n del orden mundial. \u201cEstamos transitando hacia un esquema que ya no es unipolar; hay una realidad donde potencias como China y Rusia est\u00e1n jugando un papel determinante\u201d, se\u00f1al\u00f3 .<\/p>\n
Asimismo, lament\u00f3 la ausencia de mecanismos efectivos de mediaci\u00f3n internacional. \u201cNo existen interlocutores con la suficiente capacidad de influencia para propiciar un cese al fuego, y los organismos multilaterales han perdido protagonismo en este tipo de crisis\u201d, afirm\u00f3.<\/p>\n
El especialista tambi\u00e9n abord\u00f3 el impacto humano del conflicto, destacando que las acciones militares han afectado infraestructuras civiles y a la poblaci\u00f3n en general. \u201cEn esta guerra no se est\u00e1n respetando los l\u00edmites tradicionales, y eso agrava la situaci\u00f3n humanitaria\u201d, expres\u00f3.<\/p>\n
En cuanto al escenario pol\u00edtico interno de los pa\u00edses involucrados, consider\u00f3 que las decisiones adoptadas podr\u00edan tener repercusiones significativas, particularmente en Estados Unidos. Seg\u00fan explic\u00f3, existe un creciente cuestionamiento a la pol\u00edtica exterior en torno al conflicto.<\/p>\n
Finalmente, Ceballo sostuvo que, m\u00e1s all\u00e1 del desarrollo militar, ser\u00e1n las presiones econ\u00f3micas las que podr\u00edan incidir en una eventual salida negociada. \u201cEl costo de esta guerra es elevado, y en alg\u00fan momento eso obligar\u00e1 a las partes a buscar un entendimiento\u201d, concluy\u00f3.<\/p>\n
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