{"id":75963,"date":"2026-03-22T02:48:28","date_gmt":"2026-03-22T02:48:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/almomento.net\/?p=1106949"},"modified":"2026-03-22T02:48:28","modified_gmt":"2026-03-22T02:48:28","slug":"el-petroleo-principal-shock-externo-economia-dominicana","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sarmiento24h.com\/?p=75963","title":{"rendered":"El petr\u00f3leo: principal shock externo econom\u00eda dominicana"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

\"imagen\"<\/a><\/p>\n

El autor es ingeniero, economista y pol\u00edtico. Reside en Santo Domingo<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

En los \u00faltimos 25 a\u00f1os, Rep\u00fablica Dominicana ha tenido que afrontar varios cambios repentinos y dr\u00e1sticos en el precio internacional del petr\u00f3leo. Estos episodios han tenido efectos notables sobre la econom\u00eda nacional y constituyen shocks petroleros.<\/p>\n

El primer gran shock petrolero ocurri\u00f3 en 2008, cuando el precio del barril de petr\u00f3leo alcanz\u00f3 un r\u00e9cord hist\u00f3rico de US$147 en julio de ese a\u00f1o. En el caso dominicano, el precio del barril de crudo super\u00f3 los US$100 durante siete meses de 2008. Algo similar ocurri\u00f3 con los derivados: tanto la gasolina como el gasoil registraron precios por encima de los US$100.<\/p>\n

Como consecuencia, la factura petrolera del pa\u00eds ascendi\u00f3 a US$4,242 millones, unos US$1,800 millones m\u00e1s que en 2007. Ese monto represent\u00f3 m\u00e1s de 31% de las importaciones de bienes y cerca de 9% del producto interno bruto (PIB).<\/p>\n

Estas cifras permiten dimensionar el impacto del shock: en 2008, casi uno de cada diez d\u00f3lares generados por la econom\u00eda dominicana se destinaba al pago del petr\u00f3leo. La econom\u00eda, que hab\u00eda crecido 7.4% en 2007, se desaceler\u00f3 hasta 3.3% en 2008.<\/p>\n

Las consecuencias macroecon\u00f3micas fueron contundentes: fuerte deterioro de la balanza comercial, presiones sobre el tipo de cambio y aumento del d\u00e9ficit fiscal. Pese a ello, la inflaci\u00f3n logr\u00f3 mantenerse dentro de niveles manejables. Por su magnitud y efectos sobre el PIB, este episodio puede ser considerado como el mayor shock energ\u00e9tico de la historia econ\u00f3mica reciente del pa\u00eds.<\/p>\n

El segundo shock petrolero se produjo en el per\u00edodo 2012-2013, cuando los precios del barril se mantuvieron persistentemente por encima de los US$100. Este comportamiento respondi\u00f3 a una combinaci\u00f3n de factores geopol\u00edticos y de demanda global. El m\u00e1s importante estuvo asociado a las sanciones impuestas en 2012 por Estados Unidos y la Uni\u00f3n Europea a las exportaciones de crudo iran\u00ed debido a su programa nuclear. Estas redujeron cerca de un mill\u00f3n de barriles diarios del mercado mundial.<\/p>\n

En ese contexto, el precio promedio del barril en la Rep\u00fablica Dominicana super\u00f3 los US$100 durante la mayor parte de esos a\u00f1os. En 2012, con la excepci\u00f3n de junio, los precios del crudo superaron ese umbral en todos los dem\u00e1s meses. En 2013, salvo en noviembre, el precio se mantuvo por encima de los US$100 durante todo el a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

Durante ese per\u00edodo, la factura petrolera se situ\u00f3 entre US$4,300 y US$4,800 millones anuales, lo que represent\u00f3 entre 25% y 27% de las importaciones de bienes y entre 7% y 8% del PIB. Esta situaci\u00f3n contribuy\u00f3 al deterior\u00f3 del balance externo y fue uno de los factores que incidieron en el deterioro fiscal observado en 2012.<\/p>\n

El tercer shock petrolero<\/b> ocurri\u00f3 en 2022, tras la invasi\u00f3n de Rusia a Ucrania iniciada en febrero de ese a\u00f1o. Rusia era el tercer mayor productor de petr\u00f3leo del mundo y la guerra \u2014junto con el temor a interrupciones en la infraestructura energ\u00e9tica\u2014 provoc\u00f3 una escalada inmediata de los precios internacionales del crudo.<\/p>\n

En el caso de Rep\u00fablica Dominicana, el precio del barril de petr\u00f3leo super\u00f3 los US$100 durante seis meses de 2022. Ese a\u00f1o, la factura petrolera alcanz\u00f3 US$6,146 millones, la mayor cifra registrada entre 2000 y 2025. Sin embargo, el impacto relativo fue menor que en episodios anteriores: represent\u00f3 menos del 16% de las importaciones de bienes y 5.4% del PIB, debido a que la econom\u00eda dominicana era significativamente m\u00e1s grande y diversificada.<\/p>\n

La experiencia acumulada a lo largo de estos episodios conduce a una conclusi\u00f3n clara: el petr\u00f3leo constituye el principal shock externo que enfrenta la econom\u00eda dominicana. En casi todas las crisis macroecon\u00f3micas recientes se observa el mismo factor detonante: el aumento del precio internacional del petr\u00f3leo.<\/p>\n

Cuando esto ocurre, cuatro variables clave se ven afectadas simult\u00e1neamente: aumenta la inflaci\u00f3n, se ampl\u00eda el d\u00e9ficit comercial, crece el d\u00e9ficit fiscal \u2014en parte debido a los subsidios\u2014 y se reduce el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico. Se trata de un shock macroecon\u00f3mico m\u00faltiple. Cada aumento del precio del petr\u00f3leo se convierte no solo en un problema energ\u00e9tico, sino tambi\u00e9n en un desaf\u00edo macroecon\u00f3mico de primer orden para el pa\u00eds.<\/p>\n

of-am<\/p>\n

\n

Comp\u00e1rtelo en tus redes:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n


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