{"id":8174,"date":"2026-01-24T12:53:18","date_gmt":"2026-01-24T12:53:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/almomento.net\/?p=1094224"},"modified":"2026-01-24T12:53:18","modified_gmt":"2026-01-24T12:53:18","slug":"numeros-de-licenciados-opinion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sarmiento24h.com\/?p=8174","title":{"rendered":"N\u00fameros de licenciados (OPINION)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><!-- .entry-header --> <\/p>\n<div class=\"img_center\" readability=\"9\"> <a href=\"https:\/\/almomento.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Daniel-Toribio-e1758884245979.jpg\" alt=\"N\u00fameros de licenciados (OPINION)\" title=\"N\u00fameros de licenciados (OPINION)\" data-toggle=\"lightbox\" class=\"thickbox\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/almomento.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Daniel-Toribio-e1758884245979.jpg\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"imagen\" title=\"N\u00fameros de licenciados (OPINION)\" data-toggle data-title=\"N\u00fameros de licenciados (OPINION)\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>EL AUTOR es un exadministrador del Banco de Reservas. exministro de Hacienda de la Rep\u00fablica Dominicana y actual miembro de la direcci\u00f3n pol\u00edtica del partido Fuerza del Pueblo. Reside en Santo Domingo<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><strong>Por Daniel Toribio<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>En la d\u00e9cada de los ochenta nos toc\u00f3 trabajar en la Secretar\u00eda de Estado de Finanzas. Era una \u00e9poca en que se estaba fortaleciendo esa instituci\u00f3n. A nosotros nos tocaba, al igual que a los economistas del Banco Central, hacer una evaluaci\u00f3n del presupuesto de la Corporaci\u00f3n Dominicana de Electricidad. Para ese momento, la Corporaci\u00f3n estaba dirigida por un ingeniero prestigioso.<\/p>\n<p>Cuando le llevaron los n\u00fameros y estimaciones, sobre todo del Banco Central, dijo una frase que repet\u00edamos y se nos qued\u00f3 grabada: \u201cEsos son n\u00fameros de licenciados\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Lo que \u00e9l quer\u00eda decir con eso era que esa informaci\u00f3n pod\u00eda venir de especulaciones num\u00e9ricas, como resultado de an\u00e1lisis de escritorio. Pero los que estaban en el d\u00eda a d\u00eda, los que ve\u00edan los n\u00fameros reales, los que sab\u00edan lo que hab\u00eda que cobrar y lo que se pod\u00eda cobrar, no eran los licenciados de Finanzas o del Banco Central. Eran los ingenieros y los trabajadores de la Corporaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n<p>Eso fue lo que pens\u00e9 cuando vi las estimaciones publicadas en los peri\u00f3dicos del Banco Mundial para 2026. No es mi prop\u00f3sito criticar por criticar, sino recordar que el Banco Mundial cambi\u00f3 su historia tres veces. En enero de 2025 la coloc\u00f3 en 4.7%. En junio la baj\u00f3 a 4.0%. Y en octubre la redujo a 3.0%. En diez meses, la proyecci\u00f3n se movi\u00f3 1.7 puntos porcentuales. Eso no es un \u201cajuste menor\u201d. Es un cambio de historia.<\/p>\n<p>En el cuadro de Am\u00e9rica Latina y el Caribe, Rep\u00fablica Dominicana aparece con 4.0% para 2025 y, adem\u00e1s, se reporta que esa cifra es 0.7 puntos menor que la proyecci\u00f3n de enero. Ah\u00ed est\u00e1 el 4.7% inicial, sin necesidad de conjeturas.<\/p>\n<p>La revisi\u00f3n de octubre, en el Macro Poverty Outlook, baja a 3.0% y asocia la moderaci\u00f3n a un contexto de menor impulso fiscal y demanda externa m\u00e1s d\u00e9bil, aunque reconoce apoyo de condiciones monetarias m\u00e1s flexibles. Ese documento, adem\u00e1s, exhibe algo que aqu\u00ed se omite: el crecimiento no depende de un \u201cturismo fuerte\u201d en abstracto, sino de demanda, inversi\u00f3n, energ\u00eda, productividad y capacidad del Estado para sostener pol\u00edticas.<\/p>\n<p>Ahora miremos el terreno. Al 30 de diciembre de 2025, el Banco Central inform\u00f3 que el crecimiento acumulado enero-noviembre fue 2.1%. Con esa trayectoria, luce dif\u00edcil que el a\u00f1o cierre siquiera en 2.5%. Ese dato deja una pregunta inc\u00f3moda: \u00bfcu\u00e1nto valor tiene una proyecci\u00f3n internacional cuando el propio pa\u00eds ya est\u00e1 mostrando una trayectoria distinta en tiempo real?<\/p>\n<p>La lecci\u00f3n no es \u201cno crean en el Banco Mundial\u201d. La lecci\u00f3n es m\u00e1s simple: dejemos de utilizar proyecciones como resultados. Una proyecci\u00f3n es un escenario condicionado. Sirve para comparar riesgos, no para adjudicar \u00e9xitos. Si se va a citar al Banco Mundial, no se use como autoridad: tambi\u00e9n se equivoca.<\/p>\n<div class=\"heateor_sss_sharing_container heateor_sss_horizontal_sharing\" data-heateor-sss-href=\"https:\/\/almomento.net\/numeros-de-licenciados-opinion\/\" readability=\"7\">\n<p>Comp\u00e1rtelo en tus redes:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p> <!-- 468x60 --><br \/>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3511341636159665\" data-ad-slot=\"3538255450\"><\/ins> <!-- .entry-content --> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>EL AUTOR es un exadministrador del Banco&#46;&#46;&#46;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8175,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[60],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8174","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economicas"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - 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