WASHINGTON 30 Mar.- El Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) ha concluido que los efectos econ\u00f3micos del conflicto en Oriente Pr\u00f3ximo conducir\u00e1n a precios m\u00e1s elevados y menores tasas de crecimiento a nivel global, considerando todos los escenarios posibles.<\/p>\n
En este sentido, una duraci\u00f3n m\u00e1s breve de la guerra disparar\u00e1 los precios del petr\u00f3leo y del gas hasta que los mercados se adapten, mientras que un conflicto dilatado en el tiempo mantendr\u00e1 los precios energ\u00e9ticos en cotas elevadas perjudicando m\u00e1s a los pa\u00edses dependientes de importaciones de energ\u00eda. Otra posible situaci\u00f3n en la que las tensiones permanezcan podr\u00eda suponer una inflaci\u00f3n complicada de controlar y un riesgo geopol\u00edtico constante.<\/p>\n
Aun con todas las variables contempladas, el FMI no duda que el conflicto \u00abtrastoca la vida y el sustento de la poblaci\u00f3n\u00bb de Oriente Pr\u00f3ximo y el resto del mundo, imponiendo mayores obst\u00e1culos a \u00abmuchas econom\u00edas que apenas comenzaban a mostrar signos de una recuperaci\u00f3n sostenida tras crisis anteriores\u00bb.<\/p>\n
La crisis es \u00abglobal, pero asim\u00e9trica\u00bb, seg\u00fan la \u00faltima publicaci\u00f3n de la instituci\u00f3n con sede en Washington, en la que distingue que los pa\u00edses dependientes de recursos energ\u00e9ticos, aquellos con mayores tasas de pobreza y los que cuentan con menores reservas energ\u00e9ticas, est\u00e1n m\u00e1s expuestos a las consecuencias de esta situaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n
\u00abM\u00e1s all\u00e1 de su doloroso costo humano, la guerra ha provocado graves trastornos en las econom\u00edas de los pa\u00edses m\u00e1s directamente afectados, incluyendo da\u00f1os a su infraestructura e industrias que podr\u00edan perdurar. Si bien estos pa\u00edses son resilientes, sus perspectivas de crecimiento a corto plazo se ver\u00e1n afectadas negativamente\u00bb, ha concluido el FMI en su an\u00e1lisis.<\/p>\n
As\u00ed, ha apuntado que los pa\u00edses importadores de energ\u00eda de Asia y Europa sufren en gran medida el aumento de los precios de los combustibles, y el elevado coste de los fertilizantes pone todav\u00eda en un riesgo mayor la seguridad alimentaria de los pa\u00edses m\u00e1s pobres.<\/p>\n
En concreto, pa\u00edses europeos como Italia y Reino Unido, m\u00e1s dependientes del gas, enfrentar\u00e1n mayores dificultades; mientras que Francia y Espa\u00f1a se encuentran en una mejor posici\u00f3n por su desarrollo de la energ\u00eda nuclear y las renovables.<\/p>\n
Los pa\u00edses del golfo P\u00e9rsico deben encarar la interrupci\u00f3n del tr\u00e1nsito de alimentos y un posible aumento generalizado de los precios de los mismos, coincidiendo con el inicio de la temporada de siembra en el hemisferio norte y amenazando los rendimientos y las cosechas durante todo el a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n
Igualmente, en los pa\u00edses con menores ingresos, un aumento de los precios de los alimentos afectar\u00e1 en mayor medida a su poblaci\u00f3n, puesto que los alimentos representan de media alrededor del 36% del consumo, en comparaci\u00f3n con el 20% en las econom\u00edas emergentes y el 9% en las econom\u00edas avanzadas.<\/p>\n
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Comp\u00e1rtelo en tus redes:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
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